Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Good luck to Michael Owen in his charity race at Ascot today, and also to the other ‘jockeys’ ranged against him, who have varied levels of experience. Judging by horses alone, Owen should have a right chance of actually winning, because he’s on Calder Prince, who is only 1lb off being the best in the race by ratings, copes well with some cut and has been in fair recent form.
The other thing in his favour is that he’s a prominent racer. It generally seems to me that they don’t go a proper racing pace in charity contests, which is only to be expected. The result is that a useful front-runner can sometimes be gifted the softest of leads and have the race won by halfway.
If Owen was a veteran horseman, you could see him taking advantage of this situation. But the odds are that he’s going to look a bit wobbly in the saddle and his main focus is going to be on staying aboard. In those circumstances, the 3-1 we are offered makes no appeal.
Sheikh Fahad rides the favourite, Ghalib, who also has an obvious form chance. The Sheikh has had plenty of riding practice, including some in charity races, and is doubtless getting better.
Still, if you had to do something as daft as having a bet on a charity race, I’d be looking at one of the more established riders like Southerly Roberts, an eventer who has experience of racehorses, having taken at least one of them on for showing classes after he retired. It strikes me that the sort of English family that thinks Southerly is a suitable first name for a girl has probably allowed her to jump five-bar gates from the time she went to school.
Roberts is on Big Chill, who is by no means a classy sort, having a career record of one win from 28 starts. But that one win came on similar going to today, at Chepstow a year ago, and he hasn’t raced on soft since. He’s got a stone and a half to make with Owen’s horse on the ratings but the difference in ability of their riders could wipe out that gap. Big Chill is quoted at 33-1. If he wins, you heard it here first. If he’s last, these are all silly races anyway. It’s off at 12.15pm and I think Racing UK will show it.
My betting interest at Ascot will be confined to Mr One More (2.05) in the introductory hurdle. Unbeaten in two career starts, he looked special when held up off a steady pace before moving through to win comfortably at Stratford last month. The runner-up was beaten less than a length in a Grade Two at Cheltenham on Sunday.
Mr One More comes from the red-hot Harry Fry yard and is 7-2. This is a step up in class but I fancy him to beat the Nicky Henderson favourite, Kayf Grace, making her first start for almost a year.
Somebody likes my nap, as Star Tackle (2.15) opened at 4s but is now half those odds for a novice handicap chase at Ffos Las. He was going well in front when unshipping Harry Bannister at Ayr last month and it is to be hoped they stay together for the duration this time. He won an Irish point and has got a low rating after three defeats in maiden hurdles.
Pick of the Catterick card could be the 7-2 shot Thumb Stone Blues (1.50), in a handicap chase for the first time and with cheekpieces newly fitted. Neither Worcester nor Fakenham really suited him in a couple of novice chases and I’d say that even Catterick may be on the sharp side but at least it has those long straights for the building up of momentum. This softer surface should also help. I’m sure he’s on a beatable mark in the right circumstances.
Tips for all Friday races
Catterick
12.20 Bocasien Desbois 12.50 Oak Vintage 1.20 Espoir De Teillee 1.50 Thumb Stone Blues 2.25 Parthenius 3.00 Divine Spear 3.35 Cadougarde
Ascot
1.00 Sternrubin 1.30 Storm Of Intrigue 2.05 Mr One More 2.40 Kilcrea Vale (nb) 3.15 Marcilhac 3.50 Verdana Blue
Ffos Las
1.10 Fresh New Dawn 1.40 Juge Et Parti 2.15 Star Tackle (nap) 2.50 Midnight Silver 3.25 Steel Native 4.00 Ocean Cove
Newcastle
5.45 Media World 6.15 Lord Caprio 6.45 Fascinator 7.15 Coto 7.45 Malaspina 8.15 Newmarket Warrior 8.45 Honey Badger 9.15 Bequia
