Nothing does this punter’s head in more than trying to predict where the field will go in the major straight-course races. Will they split into groups and, if so, will any of the groups cross to a rail? Would they gain an advantage? I fancy one on the far side but it looks like there’s more pace on the near side, so do I stick with it and hope the near-side pace collapses, or seek a hold-up runner on the near side that’ll get a better tow into the race?
To some extent, it’s an enjoyable part of racing’s puzzle, but then the stalls clang open and the jockeys do something you didn’t anticipate and your calculations are reduced to ash inside 50 yards. If it’s frustrating for punters, I bet some trainers and owners are feeling the same.
These thoughts are prompted, of course, by Saturday’s 2,000 Guineas, in which three horses came to the stands’ rail and finished first, second and sixth in a field of 19. “The stands’ rail was a big advantage,” said the Racing Post’s analyst, though others have suggested the sixth-placed Shine So Bright set the ideal pace for the other two on his side to follow and that made the difference, rather than any faster strip of turf.
Or perhaps we’d have got the same result if the field had raced as one group. Which explanation do you prefer? Pick one and rely on it next time these horses turn up. We’ve had the race and we still don’t know what happened!
Evidently, the jockeys were not persuaded about the appeal of the stands’ rail because not a single runner came towards it during Sunday’s card, which staggers me. I’ve heard it argued that the last race on Saturday was proof that the stands’ rail conferred no advantage, but there are other ways to interpret the outcome of that race.
My question is, do we have to give these horses such a wide strip of ground to race on? The course must be wide at the start, to accommodate the starting stalls, and again at the finish, so that everything gets a clear run, but what about in between?
At Newmarket, they’ve used a false rail on the stands side in recent years, which ends more than two furlongs out so there’s sudden room for any horse that had been boxed in. But why not make even more inventive use of rails? Why couldn’t the rails on both sides gradually edge towards the centre of the course, guiding the runners towards the middle of the track?
That way, if they race in separate groups, at least the groups are not split so wide apart and it becomes less likely that anyone is on a faster strip. The effect would be to discourage anyone from racing up the rail because it’s on an angle and they’d have to cover more ground than a rival going in a straight line up the middle. But then both tapering rails disappear two and a half furlongs out, so everyone can spread out and have room to run.
The idea didn’t grab Michael Prosser, Newmarket’s clerk of the course, when I tried it out on him last night. He insisted there was no ground-related advantage on Saturday and added: “The one thing that nobody can deny is that we’ve seen two very good Guineas winners and the best horse on the day has won both races. Undoubtedly.”
I asked him if he would bring back the false rail next year, in the event of a smaller field for the 2,000 Guineas, and he seemed inclined against it, though obviously he doesn’t have to make a decision for 11 months. “I like to see them race up the centre,” he said. Well, tapering rails from both sides would practically ensure that. I think it would be worth an experiment on some lower-profile raceday.
Monday’s best bets
On a busy afternoon, the nap is at Windsor, where Hummdinger (3.10) is only 6-5 because the other fancied runner has been taken out. Alan King’s three-year-old was narrowly beaten when stepped up to 10 furlongs on his handicap debut a fortnight ago and another two furlongs plus Jamie Spencer could do the trick.
Later, Greenside (4.20) can build on his reappearance fourth in the Spring Cup. Henry Candy’s runner is 15-8 in this much more winnable contest.
I really fancied Swiss Connection at Beverley but he’s out to 10-1 from 5-1 for his first run since September, so I’ll leave him and skip to Kempton’s jumps card, where Frodon’s half-brother Sao (2.20) is fairly priced at 6-4 for his chasing debut. Neverbeen To Paris (4.05) has been hammered down to 6-5 to make it two from two in handicap hurdles but I fancy him even at those odds.
Warwick 1.30 Ferrobin 2.05 Colditz Castle
2.40 Cruiseaweigh 3.15 Seaston Spirit 3.50 Blairs Cove 4.25 Champagne Mist 5.00 Royal Jonquille
Kempton 1.45 West Coast Flyer 2.20 Sao 2.55 Fontley House 3.30 Tommy Silver 4.05 Neverbeen To Paris (nb) 4.40 Adrrastos 5.15 Admiral’s Sunset
Beverley 1.55 Dylan De Vega 2.30 Mr Fudge 3.05 Swiss Connection 3.40 Abushamah 4.15 Where’s Jeff 4.50 Mont Kinabalu 5.25 Illumined 6.00 Kensington Art
Windsor 2.00 Real Estate 2.35 Erissimus Maximus
3.10 Hummdinger (nap) 3.45 Grapevine 4.20 Greenside 4.55 To The Moon 5.30 Arishka
Bath 2.15 General Brook 2.50 Elevate Her 3.25 Sky Defender 4.00 Simbirsk 4.35 Scofflaw 5.10 Coronation Cottage 5.45 Brother Bentley
