Tuesday’s best bets, by Chris Cook
I was beginning to think Silvestre de Sousa might be vulnerable in this year’s jockeys’ title race but then he went to Ripon on Sunday and won on all four of his rides. Sure, one of them was an unbeatable 1-9 shot but two were 6-1 and 7-1. There’s not much wrong with his form or his confidence on that showing.
He had seemed, to these eyes, a bit short of winners in the first 10 days of the new championship. But my main conclusion, looking at the jockeys’ table now, is that his desire for the title is as strong as ever and odds of 4-6 about him winning it again are justified.
De Sousa is on 13 winners, just a couple off the pace being set by Danny Tudhope, but his 84 rides is not just way ahead of Tudhope’s 60, it’s ahead of all other Flat-racing jockeys in Britain. So far, De Sousa’s strike-rate has been a pedestrian 15% but you can be reasonably sure, based on previous years, that his talent and opportunities will carry it up to 17% or 18% across the whole of the season. That, combined with sheer number of rides, will make him hard to beat.
I fancied Andrea Atzeni to make an impact this time and it is, of course, still early days. But Atzeni’s 48 rides so far suggest he is not mad keen about going in search of large numbers of rides, instead sticking with his established MO of preferring quality to quantity. That will make for a fine, long career but it will win you no titles. Judging by the relative number of rides they’ve been taking, Atzeni would need to keep up a strike-rate of more than 30% to beat De Sousa.
Turning to more pressing matters, I’m taken by 7-1 about Operative (3.45) at Chepstow. Ed de Giles’s chestnut was only 10th of 15 on his reappearance but he was hampered at the start and again at the finish and actually ran a fair race in the circumstances.
His first run has been his weakest or close to it for the past couple of years and he should be a lot sharper now. Adam Kirby returns to the saddle, their form figures together being 221, and Operative is only 4lb higher than when they won at Sandown in September.
At Ayr, I’m interested in the couple of runners fielded by the Curragh trainer John Feane, whose strike-rate in British turf races is 28%. He starts with Dream Sleep (3.35), having her second run for Feane, and Ben Curtis is a rather more aggressive jockey booking than the inexperienced claimer who rode on her recent return to action.
She’s a half-sister to Highgarden, who started favourite for the Musidora last week, and could therefore be very handily treated. This is her first chance on a sound surface. She’s 13-2.
Later, Feane runs Ana Lichious (5.15), who is also fairly new to Feane’s yard, having been disappointing for Paul Flynn last year. She’s dropped a stone and a half since June and there’s some market interest in the 5-1 shot as I type. A return to something like the form she showed for Pia Brandt would be easily enough.
Tuesday ti
Ayr 2.00 Sugar Coating 2.35 Gone With The Wind 3.05 Rebel State 3.35 Dream Sleep (nb) 4.10 Sultan Baybars 4.45 Dalton 5.15 Ana Lichious 5.45 Calliope
Chepstow 2.10 Welcoming 2.45 Bombshell Bay 3.15 Superego 3.45 Operative (nap) 4.20 Iconic Belle 4.55 Almoghared 5.25 Volpone Jelois
Huntingdon 5.40 Mon Port 6.10 Spader 6.40 Robert's Star 7.10 David's Phoebe 7.40 Not A Role Model 8.10 Frankie Rapper 8.40 Right Of Reply
Hexham 6.00 Kick On Dottie 6.30 Sleep In First 7.00 Chanceiton 7.30 Bennachie 8.00 Card Game 8.30 Rising Marienbard 9.00 Back To Balloo
Nottingham 1.50 Barend Boy 2.20 Infrastructure 2.55 Austin Powers 3.25 Caiya 4.00 Sea Youmzain 4.35 Navajo Star 5.05 Bustam
