Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
It’s that time of year when you sometimes hear about certain stables or owners “getting the Christmas money”, which is easily said whenever a horse wins at a shorter SP than its opening price. Personally, I think anyone sufficiently hard-nosed to land a proper gamble would not be the kind of person to care very much whether it’s Christmas, Easter or Halloween, but perhaps that’s a bit too much “Bah, humbug” when everyone else is having fun with the idea.
Anyway, it seems the ultra-shrewd yard of Alexandra Dunn may be in for a good day. This Somerset trainer deserves plenty of respect in handicaps, in which her strike-rate is 12%, which compares favourably with her figures for novice races (4%) and maiden contests (3%).
I especially like the look of Lough Derg Island (1.10) at Fontwell, where this Irish point winner makes his chasing debut in a novice handicap. His form over hurdles was mostly poor but he was a close second at Uttoxeter in April and is only 6lb higher.
He travelled nicely into the race on his reappearance, around today’s track, but faded into fifth and presumably needed the run. The tongue tie he wore for the first time that day is reapplied. In all, there are a few reasons why we may see a career best today and he’s 11-2 from 9-1.
Dunn also runs Goonjim (2.30) over hurdles at Uttoxeter, provided the fog there doesn’t get in the way of racing. I thought this one had possibilities from a low mark on his handicap debut, with a hood and a tongue tie both fitted for the first time. There’s still 20-1 in a place, which is half the odds at which he opened with some firms.
Dunn has a couple of runners in a later handicap chase at Fontwell and I tipped her Slidecheck in the paper. I wouldn’t be taking 5-2, though, which is why he’ll doubtless be the yard’s only winner of the day.
I’ve picked another shortener in Fontwell’s closer, Denny Kerrell (3.40) being 8-1 from 20s. There was some interest in him for his reappearance at Towcester last month and he travelled like a possible winner before getting tired.
He’ll be sharper for that and the drop back in distance should help. This is only his second try in a handicap and his second run since joining Seamus Mullins from Caroline Keevil. Mullins has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight, albeit in novice contests rather than handicaps. This five-year-old was beaten 31 lengths at Towcester in the end but I’ll give him another try.
Today’s least speculative tip would be Florrie Boy (2.00), a value 3-1 shot to defy a penalty at Uttoxeter after staying on really strongly to win at Aintree on Saturday. This is a bigger field but seems to me to lack the strength in depth of the more valuable race at Aintree. Nigel Twiston-Davies tries to negate the penalty by putting up Tom Humphries, a 10lb claimer, which is not a tactic I especially like but Humphries showed promise to win at Sandown on Saturday.
