If my tipping for Wednesday’s action is as wrong as some of the weather forecasters’ predictions for London on Tuesday then questions will need to be asked. The expectation of showers giving way to a mainly dry day was well wide of the mark, with thunder and lightning accompanied by heavy rain continuing for a number of hours.
The going at a murky Epsom 18 miles away was reported to be soft this morning by clerk of the course Andrew Cooper and it’s anybody’s guess what conditions will be like by the time of the Derby on Saturday given the flash flooding in parts of Britain this week.
Forecasters who correctly predicted the weather at Epsom so far this week have more significant precipitation in the offing for the track over the next two days and it may be very testing for the runners in the Oaks on Friday as well as the Derby.
Cooper told the Racing Post this morning: “Even if it were to stay dry between now and Derby day you would be looking at good to soft at best. It will be on the softer side of the scale and the extent will depend on what happens [with the extent of the rain] on Thursday.”
The state of the going is the single most variable factor in the outcome of any horse race and if there is more rain, guaranteed stayers with proven ability on testing ground will come firmly into the reckoning.
The betting this year is dominated by Saxon Warrior and rightly so given his form and breeding credentials, and the fact he hails from the dominant Aidan O’Brien stable. The 2,000 Guineas winner is an 8-11 shot but hot favourites are rare in the Derby given the task of handling the preliminaries, the unique track and the distance. His stamina may well be tested to the full.
Saxon Warrior’s skinny odds do mean that there are a number of horses at attractive each-way prices. In the circumstances outlined above Dee Ex Bee would definitely be one of the names to consider if the going was soft on the day. The Mark Johnston-trained runner did not get the run of the race at Epsom in the track’s Derby trial in April and was a clear second best to Derby hope Young Rascal at Chester last time out, which means he is still available at 33-1. Dee Ex Bee will be staying on well when many are tiring and is certainly one to keep in mind.
As far as Wednesday’s racing is concerned the fare at Beverley is the most attractive for betting purposes and Eeh Bah Gum (2.00), who has an excellent draw on the five-furlong handicap, rates the best bet of the day. The selection won in eye-catching style at Redcar last time out and his trainer, Tim Easterby, has an improving sprinter on his hands.
Only Spoofing (2.30) is the other selection at the Yorkshire venue to back. He runs in the second division of the sprint handicap and will also break from a handy stall. Only Spoofing has gone up 11lb for his latest success but is still handily weighted on his form in Ireland and could prove difficult to beat.
Beverley 1.30 Red Handed 2.00 Eeh Bah Gum (nap) 2.30 Only Spoofing (nb) 3.00 Nature Boy 3.30 Michele Strogoff 4.00 Illustrissime 4.30 Effervescence 5.00 The Knot Is Tied
Cartmel 2.10 Volcanic 2.40 Russian Royale 3.10 Frankie Ballou 3.40 Oh Land Abloom 4.10 Man Of Steel 4.40 Royal Etiquette 5.15 Good Tradition
Nottingham 2.20 Heartwarming 2.50 Island Of Life 3.20 Autumn Leaves 3.50 Daira Prince 4.20 Channel Packet 4.50 Dagueneau 5.25 Zapper Cass
Warwick 5.05 Mick Maestro 5.40 Whatduhavtoget 6.10 Champ 6.45 Shufoog 7.15 Too Much Too Soon 7.50 Port Melon 8.20 Lord Topper
Ripon 6.35 Rockin Roy 7.05 Weellan 7.40 Al Barg 8.10 Sandra’s Secret 8.40 Northwest Frontier 9.10 M C Muldoon
