Ten years on from Oratorio’s shock victory over Motivator in the Eclipse, Aidan O’Brien may be about to pull off another surprise defeat of a Derby winner in the Sandown race. Cougar Mountain (3.45) is a fascinating contender for Saturday’s feature and it is by no means a stretch to imagine him getting home in front at odds of 12-1, the same price at which Oratorio started.
Cougar Mountain was started off as a sprinter – partly, one imagines, because his sire is Fastnet Rock, Australia’s top sprinter a decade ago. But Fastnet Rock is getting some quality horses over longer distances than he managed himself, like Fascinating Rock, who was beaten by just a neck in a 10-furlong Group One race this season.
Having been beaten by just two lengths in the Nunthorpe in August, Cougar Mountain was stepped up to a mile this year and justified that with third place in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot. With Ryan Moore riding for the first time that day, he finished powerfully to be beaten by less than two lengths, suggesting that today’s extra distance may be of further assistance.
It’s a pity that we have a small field and no obvious pace-setters for such an important race, as we may end up with a steady pace and a muddling outcome. Moore is a good man to have on your side in such circumstances and his mount may be best able to cope if the race becomes a sprint from the turn.
There is nothing wrong with Golden Horn, an above-average Derby winner, but odds of 2-5 do not appeal for his first clash with older horses in a race that may not be run at a true gallop. The Grey Gatsby, so unlucky at Ascot last time, is interesting at 4-1 but can be disappointing and his record under jockeys other than Moore is just one from eight.
1.45 Haydock Drying ground and Epsom’s odd layout may not have suited Cymro on his handicap debut but conditions here can produce a better effort and his stable has been going well since we last saw him.
2.00 Sandown Three from three up the sprint chute here – Waady is well drawn for another big effort against older horses. He will cope with the ground whether it rains or not, has a very progressive profile and can take a race in which three-year-olds have done well. His only defeat since his debut came in a race that worked out poorly for him.
2.15 Haydock Since being fitted with a hood, Ballybacka Queen has shown improved form to land two handicaps from three starts, including on what was feared to be an unsuitably fast surface last time. She was thought good enough to be tried in several Group Ones earlier in her career and, while she fared poorly, she is certainly worth a try at this level, now that connections appear to have found the key to her. With more rain in the forecast, Haydock is likely to be testing and she should relish that.
2.35 Sandown A brother to Farhh, Basem may just be biding his time in handicaps. He won with more in hand than the neck margin suggests when reeling in Jacob Black over this course and distance last time. Jacob Black was trying to make all for the second consecutive time round here and is likely to give them all a good tow once more, from stall three, but Basem is ideally placed in four to track him and pounce late again. James Doyle, who rode him for the first time when scoring here and is back aboard, had a treble at Sandown on Friday.
2.50 Haydock From the bottom of the weights, Apterix looks one to stay with, having won two of his first four starts on the Flat for Brian Ellison. He appreciated some dig in the ground when finishing strongly to win an amateurs’ race at York last time and has plenty more to offer from a 6lb higher mark.
3.10 Sandown Black Cherry has taken her own sweet time to find her form but the way she came clear of handicap rivals over this course and distance last time suggests a race of this kind is within her compass. She looks to be on a strong upward curve.
