It is not especially rare for a trainer to win the 2,000 Guineas in back-to-back years but it must be doubtful whether any trainer has done so in the first two years with a licence. Richard Hannon has a fine chance of achieving that feat with Ivawood (3.45), the pick of his four contenders in Saturday’s Classic.
Ivawood’s odds doubled to the current 12-1 after he was beaten in the Greenham Stakes on his reappearance last month but that suggests a possible failure to learn about how the Hannon yard operates. Night Of Thunder, last year’s 2,000 winner, was also beaten in the Greenham, on the strength of which he was allowed to start the Classic at 40-1. The previous year Hannon’s Sky Lantern won the 1,000 Guineas at 9-1 after being a beaten favourite in her prep-run.
As Richard Hughes, Ivawood’s jockey, explained this week, the Hannon horses turn out for Classic trials precisely because they are not worked hard at home and may need a run to bring them closer to peak fitness. Defeat, in those circumstances, is no disaster.
Ivawood is reportedly continuing to please in his work and this impressive Richmond Stakes winner will bounce off the expected fast surface. He must prove his stamina for this mile but his pedigree suggests he should cope, the fast ground will help and it would be premature to say he will not last on the basis of the Greenham.
There is not much wrong with Gleneagles, except his price, which is too short in view of the fact that he faces a big field including a number of unexposed talents. The bare form of what he achieved last year does not make him an intimidating favourite. His stablemate Ol’ Man River makes almost as much appeal, though the Derby looks more like his race.
Two of the last five Guineas have been won at odds of 33-1 or bigger, so, in an open year, the outsiders are worth a second glance. Freddy Head’s Ride Like The Wind is being unfairly overlooked at 33-1 in light of his impressive success in the Prix Djebel, though his ability to cope with a fast surface must be taken on trust.
2.00 Newmarket
Top Tug is tempting but preference is for Halation, with a hood fitted to help him settle better through the first half-mile. He put in a huge effort at Doncaster in March, considering that he was asked to cross the entire width of the track before making his effort, and gets to run from the same mark on drier ground.
2.15 Goodwood
Godolphin’s Dream Child may have more to offer now that she returns to turf but the safer option, in light of respective achievements, is Jordan Princess. From the Luca Cumani yard that won this in 2013, she finished strongly to score over course and distance in August. She was possibly unlucky not to score at this level on her final run of 2014 and should be better still this season.
2.30 Newmarket
Kingsgate Native is a big player, even at the age of 10, considering he has been runner-up to Sole Power in this race for the past two years and now gets his big chance in the absence of that rival. But Watchable is the pick on the basis of his reappearance effort in the Abernant here, when he was beaten by only a race-fit rival.
2.50 Goodwood
First-time blinkers did something for Emell when he scored at Haydock last time and he will be well backed on the strength of that but his previous record was patchy and he is flattered by his Group Two second at this track. His better-drawn stablemate Brownsea Brink may be a better option, having clearly needed his first run since May when well beaten last month. His second outing of last year gives him a fair chance here and he could be hard to catch if going off in front.
3.05 Newmarket
This looks straightforward for Telescope, who is unbeaten in two starts at Group Two level, both times over this distance on fast ground. He turned in three excellent performances in defeat when stepped up to the highest class for his final three runs of 2014.
