It is easy to find oneself forgiving a few poor runs when backing a handicapper but in the case of Early Morning (3.50) there is only one recent flop to forgive, so it is surprising to find him as big as 28-1 for the Cambridgeshire. Harry Dunlop’s grey needs a bit of time and space to get rolling in his races and he should get that in this 176-year-old handicap, the big betting race of this Saturday afternoon.
Fast ground at Haydock last month brought out the best in Early Morning and the way he powered clear of his rivals that day suggested he had considerable scope to build on what he has so far shown. A slow burner who missed most of his three-year-old season with a leg injury, he had at that point won twice and been beaten by less than a length in his two other races this year.
He was then tipped into a valuable race at Kempton but faded into 13th and, if that is indeed representative of his ability, then he would have no chance here. But a mile in a big field around that tight circuit does not seem an ideal test for Early Morning, for all that he won there in April when much lower in the weights. The Polytrack was riding on the slow side, which was also against him.
He is reunited here with Phillip Makin, who rode him at Haydock and should travel strongly behind the pace. The extra furlong and uphill finish can help him if he remains in striking distance at the business end.
Dangers abound and the 2013 winner, Educate, is on a particularly dangerous mark after a losing run since. But it appears that the ground is drying out at Newmarket and that may not be in his favour.
2.00 Newmarket Foundation’s habit of starting slowly is a real problem against horses of this quality and on drying ground, so Deauville looks the way to go. He impressed in victory at Leopardstown in July and that form was boosted when the runner-up won a Group race at Newmarket this week.
2.15 Market Rasen Gran Maestro looks like a hurdler to stick with, having made good progress since joining Dr Richard Newland last year. Out-battled by one rival in a big field at Sandown in April, he was well fancied for a similar race over this course and distance in July, which he duly won, albeit by a narrow margin. Having gone up only 4lbs, he can be expected to take another step forward, despite a beaten effort on the Flat in between.
2.35 Newmarket Besharah has to reverse the form of the July race in which she was pipped by Illuminate but she has kept improving since to land the Princess Margaret and the Lowther by daylight. It is her rival who has more to prove on this return to action after an absence not far short of three months and with a new jockey aboard, Richard Hughes having retired in the interim.
2.50 Market Rasen The only saving grace of Oscar Rock’s unlucky fall at Ayr in April was that it came at the third-last. Had it been once fence later, the handicapper would have been entitled to raise his rating in light of such a positive run up to the point of mishap. As it is, Malcolm Jefferson’s promising young chaser looks nicely treated and the one to beat here.
3.10 Newmarket Returning to the theme of forgiving a horse for one defeat, Buratino looks a big price at 10-1 for this Middle Park, bearing in mind what an impressive winner of the Coventry he was two starts ago. On his return from a two-month break he was a good third in Ireland behind two classy Aidan O’Brien juveniles, with connections feeling he might have preferred a sounder surface. He could get that here and is a value alternative to the hot favourite, Shalaa, who has an excellent chance but is possibly overestimated by the betting market.
