It seems a pity to begin discussion of a Group One race by talking about a possible draw bias but, following Friday’s Commonwealth Cup over the same strip of ground, it really does look as though horses racing towards the far side of the home straight have an advantage. Perhaps there is a horse in the field for Saturday’s Diamond Jubilee who is so superior to the rest that he can overcome whatever bias there happens to be, but that, for me, is not the way to bet.
Some of the most interesting horses are drawn high and will therefore at least start the race towards the stands’ side, notably the Australian runner Brazen Beau in stall 15 of 15. Pearl Secret and Due Diligence are others in high stalls but Mustajeeb (4.20) has got lucky in stall four and appeals most at odds of 5-1.
The winner of the slightly longer Jersey Stakes at last year’s Royal Ascot, he has twice run well in Group Ones at a mile. But sprinting could be his game, judging by the way he won over six furlongs last time, beating an Abbaye winner.
2.30 Ascot Ballydoyle ran a fairly promising debut and the fact that she has been named after the owners’ stable suggests she is highly rated but the available odds are too short. The more experienced Tonkinese won easily at Leopardstown last time and the form of his debut third has worked out well. He wouldn’t want very fast ground but rain is forecast.
3.05 Ascot Mahsoob is an entirely convincing favourite who is probably passing through handicaps on his way to Group races but a best price of 2-1 is ridiculous for a competitive event at the Royal meeting. At 16-1, Ayrad makes each-way appeal for his handicap debut, as he gives the strong sense of a horse whose best remains unrevealed. He goes well on a sound surface and his latest effort was his best yet.
3.40 Ascot It has been a poor week for Sir Michael Stoute but if any race can rescue him it is this one, which he has won five times in the past decade and in which he fields three of the seven runners. It is possible that one or two others may have potential for progress but his Telescope is the standout quality here and can repeat last year’s success.
5.00 Ascot As already discussed, a low draw seems likely to be an advantage here and Gamesome is of most interest among those in the right half of the starting stalls. He caught the eye running on strongly after plenty of trouble in running at Newmarket last month and looks the sort of progressive type who could be a force in a fast-ground sprint handicap. Watchable, third in a slightly longer race here last year, could also run above his odds.
5.35 Ascot Willie Mullins has won this twice in three years and there is really no getting away from his Wicklow Brave, a classy Cheltenham Festival winner who should be fine on fast ground and has Ryan Moore on board for the first time.
