The Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster on Saturday, the final Group One event of the domestic season, also seems likely to be the last chance for Joseph O’Brien to add to a record at the top level in Britain that includes two victories in the Derby, and 16 Group Ones in all, at the age of just 22.
It would be a remarkable record of achievement for most jockeys twice his age, and O’Brien could add to it today aboard his father Aidan’s colt Deauville (3.45), after what promises to be a fascinating tactical battle with Foundation and Frankie Dettori – a jockey who is, as it happens, exactly twice his age.
It is difficult to see beyond the front two in the betting in today’s race, as both put up performances that would have made them worthy favourites when they finished first and second, separated by just half a length, in the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket last month. Foundation, who came home in front, is a natural favourite at around even money as a result, but half a length is not much to find and there are several reasons to think that, at 7-2, Deauville and O’Brien could turn the form around.
The going on Town Moor could be the most significant of these, as it is currently good-to-soft with rain forecast for Saturday. Foundation won his race at Newmarket with a burst of speed two out, but that edge may not be quite as sharp today. Deauville is bred to get every yard of a mile-and-a-half next year so could be more effective with some cut at this trip, while O’Brien’s ability to learn from his last race should not be underestimated.
O’Brien does not have the build or weight to be a Flat jockey, but he has inherited his father’s sharp racing brain and developed the same, single-minded focus on success. Ryan Moore - who is on his way to Australia for the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup - was aboard Deauville last time, but O’Brien will have gleaned all he can about that race and gained a clear idea about the best way to negate Foundation’s turn of foot and shift the odds a little more in his favour. Whether it will be enough remains to be seen, but at the prices on offer, it is a chance worth taking.
Saturday’s best bets, by Greg Wood
Newbury 1.50 Zonderland has proven form at this level when a close fourth behind Sanus Per Aquam in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes at Newmarket last time out, but that is factored into his price and Start Time may offer some value as a result. Saeed bin Suroor’s gelding took a nursery off 82 on his most recent run, but could not have been more emphatic and recorded a strong time in the process.
Doncaster 2.00 It is difficult to see beyond the favourite Dhahmaan, who was beaten for the first time at York earlier this month but put up a performance in defeat that would be probably be good enough to win today, even without any further improvement. Above N Beyond is promising too, but looks booked for second place at best.
Cheltenham 2.10 Dan Skelton has continued his rapid progress towards the upper reaches of the National Hunt trainers’ championship in the early months of the current season, and it would be no great surprise if Workbench could find sufficient improvement to follow up a recent win at Fontwell. Boondooma is the obvious danger in what should be a typically fierce and furious handicap chase over the minimum trip.
Newbury 2.25 Romsdal was placed in two Classics last season and also finished third behind Postponed in the King George earlier this year, but racing is about passing the post in front and on that measure, his overall record is beginning to look quite thin. The only two wins of his career have both come on the all-weather at Kempton Park, in a maiden in April 2014 and a minor Listed event 11 months later. The question for punters is whether they want to be with him or against him in a Group Three, at a trip that is probably a little short of his best. On balance, the lightly-raced Koora, sixth in a Group Two last time on her fourth start, is a more attractive bet.
Doncaster 2.35 In a fiercely competitive sprint handicap, Adam’s Ale could emerge in front. Mark Walford’s gelding could not have gone any closer at Catterick last time, when he led for most of the final furlong only to be beaten on the nod. He was the runner-up on his previous start at York too, goes well with some cut in the ground and has a handy draw in stall three.
Cheltenham 2.45 Skelton has another interesting runner in Fou Et Sage, who makes his first start for the stable after running second in a couple of Grade Three hurdles at Auteuil. The excellent Hargam, third home in a very strong Triumph Hurdle last season, sets a solid standard, but Fou Et Sage has form in France that puts him very close to Nicky Henderson’s runner – and he has plenty of scope for improvement.
Newbury 3.00 Examiner put up a career-best performance when third in the Cambridgeshire last time out and will be difficult to beat if he can reproduce that form. Stuart Williams’ four-year-old did not have an ideal position at Newmarket either, finishing in front in the group on the stands’ side, and though he is up another 3lb in the weights, this will be just his fifth start of the campaign.
Doncaster 3.10 Argus is an interesting runner here with just four previous outings in the book. Ralph Beckett’s colt had not raced since June when sixth in a handicap at Newmarket last time, but still took another step forward as he did so. Storm Force Ten is another unexposed runner, as he has not been seen since winning at Chester’s feature meeting in May, but Argus may just have the edge in terms of fitness.
Cheltenham 3.20 Any number of possibilities here, with the admirable 10-year-old Champion Court setting the standard after three wins since May. He is up a stone in the weights however, and Big Casino – another son of Court Cave, and thus a grandson of both Sadler’s Wells and Dancing Brave - may be a better investment. He has not been out since making all the running at Haydock in May, but that was a career-best performance and Nigel Twiston-Davies, his trainer, is also in decent form, with five wins from 12 starters prior to Friday’s Cheltenham card.
