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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Chris Cook

Talking Horses: Saturday’s best bets plus the latest racing news

GM Hopkins
GM Hopkins, pictured here after winning the Shadwell Farm Handicap at Newmarket last September, is good value at 7-1 at Doncaster. Photograph: Steven Cargill/racingfotos.c/REX

John Gosden and William Haggas, the Newmarket trainers who sent up back-to-back winning favourites to win the Lincolns of 2009 and 2010, take each other on with fancied runners in the latest running of the Doncaster handicap and it may be the older man who comes out on top. Gosden’s GM Hopkins (3.45) appeals at 7-1 to start the year with a bang for his jockey Robert Havlin, who may get some good chances now that William Buick is no longer in the yard.

GM Hopkins has already met the Haggas runner, Mange All, who is narrowly preferred in the betting. That was in the Silver Cambridgeshire in September, when GM Hopkins swept past his rivals to score with authority. Mange All is not entitled to turn that form around on just 3lb better terms.

GM Hopkins disappointed on his final two starts of the year but he may have done enough by then. The first of those defeats was his third quick run back after a break and the Newmarket win probably took something out of him.

But I would cheerfully back Gosden to have him ripe and ready for this, just as he was for his April reappearance last year. GM Hopkins looks a Group horse in the making and may prove it here.

2.00 Doncaster: Drying ground is not great news for Tullius but there ought to be enough cushion for him to run to form and his normal level of form should be too good for these rivals. Andrew Balding’s seven-year-old has an excellent record at the start of the turf season.

2.15 Kempton: Romsdal is odds-on as I type and my faith in Gosden will not quite stretch far enough to allow me to back his St Leger runner-up on this drop back to a tight 10 furlongs. The colt’s only success was in a maiden race here last April and even that race was over further than today’s. A chance is taken on Red Galileo, from the Ed Dunlop yard that was out of sorts for so much of last year. This one nevertheless ran some fine races and, like Romsdal, his only success has been here, although he was sharp enough to manage it over a mile as a two-year-old.

2.35 Doncaster: The progressive and likeable Aetna can win her opener for the third year running. She won her maiden at this meeting two years ago and it seems the next thing to a certainty that Mick Easterby will have got her ready for this opportunity. She is already a Listed winner over this course and distance from November and does not need the going to be as deep as it was that day.

2.50 Kempton: One could worry about New Year’s Night having failed in all three previous visits to this right-handed track but Charlie Appleby has really got him improving, now that he has been stepped up to this sort of distance, and he is worth another chance. He is only 3lb higher for a convincing success at Lingfield a fortnight ago.

3.10 Doncaster: Having been a shade unlucky in being forced to run so wide at Wolverhampton last time under a useful 7lb claimer, Halation should not be underestimated. Jamie Spencer, who won on him last summer, returns to the saddle and the pair should be staying on at the finish. The likeable Donny Rover is the main concern.

3.25 Kempton: Chris Wall is not generally a trainer to have his string in lean and mean condition quite so early in the season but, if he has Oh So Sassy fit enough, the mare has a fair chance. Her form around here is so much better than what she has been able to achieve elsewhere and she is not harshly treated if able to run to that level once more.

4.15 Meydan: It’s slightly odd to see Main Sequence on 6-1, considering he is unbeaten in five since joining Graham Motion last summer. One of those wins was in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, when he beat Flintshire with a degree of comfort to these eyes, yet Flintshire is shorter at 9-2 here. He is a tricky ride who needs to be delivered at the right time but Rajiv Maragh knows him well. Ryan Moore may well conjure a great tune out of Harp Star, who did not get a great ride from Yuga Kawada in the Arc, but the Moore effect is fully factored into her odds of 100-30 and it would not be the biggest surprise in the world if she were once more running on a bit too late.

5.00 Meydan: California Chrome looks the right favourite for the Dubai World Cup, having impressed even in defeat in his prep-race behind the excellent Shared Belief. African Story, last year’s winner, can probably run above his odds but may still not be good enough. Epiphaneia looks a fine animal but is unproven on dirt.

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