Encouraged by a hefty increase in prize money, a record field of 18 will line up for the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday, the first Group One for older Flat horses of the British season. We can hope for a thrilling spectacle but trouble in running may be a factor, so we are not certain to find out who is the best of these here.
Night Of Thunder is probably the first name that will jump out of the racecard, having won last year’s 2,000 Guineas, but you’d have to be slightly suspicious about a horse who has not won since the May of his three-year-old season, having been a flashy two-year-old. That said, he would have won the QEII in October with a clear passage but a hold-up horse like him is at risk of more traffic issues here.
Custom Cut (3.45) was further back that day but I can forgive him that flop at the end of a busy season on heavy going. To that point, he had been one of the most improved horses in training, having joined David O’Meara at the start of the year, and he seemed to take another step forward when landing a Group Two at Sandown on his reappearance.
What I like about him in the context of this race is that he is usually settled in a prominent position before finding plenty and his connections believe he’ll stay further than this bare mile. That should mean that trouble in running won’t be a factor and Custom Cut will be able to show his true form, so long as the early pace is not suicidal. The 10-1 looks too big.
Perhaps I’m overplaying the possibility of traffic issues. Newbury is a wide track but a maiden race there on Friday suggested that the stands’ side of the course is slower than the centre, so the jockeys in this race may be competing for what is thought to be the best of the ground.
Breton Rock, a Group Two winner at this track last year, goes well fresh and looks an each-way possible at 33-1.
2.00 Newbury: Telescope will be a warm favourite despite having got beaten at odds-on a fortnight ago. There is potential for another upset here, as he is a fast-ground horse racing on ground that has a modicum of give in it but he looks head and shoulders above these rivals and should be sharper with that reappearance run behind him.
2.15 Newmarket: Another 5lb on his back does not look like stopping Aramist, who has been on a steep upward curve since being stepped up in distance some 18 months ago.
2.35 Newbury: It has been another fine week in the career of John Gosden, who fields a progressive speedster here in Waady. He whizzed up in a Sandown handicap off a mark of 90 last month and, while that would not quite match some of the achievements of his rivals in this Listed contest, he surely has more to offer on his fifth outing.
2.50 Newmarket: This doesn’t look a strong race for the grade and, although Bravo Zolo has some improving to do, Marco Botti’s colt has impressed with the way he has travelled through his races on the all-weather.
3.10 Newbury: Sir Michael Stoute has fielded some useful types in this race over the years and won it 12 months ago with a subsequent Royal Ascot winner. Dissolution appeals as another strong contender, having been raised only 2lb for his reappearance success, when he took an age to pull his knitting together. Perhaps he deserves extra credit for that win, achieved on only three shoes.
3.25 Newmarket: Having blown the start on his debut for William Haggas here last month, Properus will be dangerous if racing rather more like a professional this time. The surface should not be quite so quick, which will help.
