A low draw is not essential in the Cesarewitch but it is certainly an advantage for the right horse if his main rivals are 10 stalls wider. That is the position in which Heartbreak City (3.50) finds himself for the Cesarewitch, the famous big-field handicap that every punter would like to solve at Newmarket this Saturday afternoon.
This five-year-old would be interesting in any case, having been confidently ridden to beat 14 rivals at York in August, when he was wearing a tongue tie for the first time. A 9lb rise for that is perfectly reasonable and he has the look of a horse with whom the trainer, Tony Martin, has been biding his time.
Martin has won this race before, with Leg Spinner in 2007, and Heartbreak City is marginally better drawn than that one was, starting from stall nine. The trainer also has Quick Jack here and that one might have even stronger claims were it not for his draw in 30. Other market-leaders such as Low Key (20), Bayan (21) and Renneti (18) are also much wider than Heartbreak City.
Fran Berry is an excellent booking. Though he takes only a handful of rides in Britain each season, he has managed to win three valuable staying handicaps here since 2013.
Low Key looks pretty dangerous, despite his wide draw, having made significant progress since joining David Pipe in the summer. He is now 26lb higher in the weights than when scoring at Kempton in January 2014 as the last leg of a betting coup by Barney Curley, believed to have netted £2m. We may get a clear idea here of exactly how much he had in hand that day.
1.45 York: A gelding operation appears to have been the making of Arthenus, who has won both his starts since. The three-year-old looks well treated here and represents the yard of James Fanshawe, which is ending the season so strongly.
2.00 Newmarket: At 20-1 there might be a bit of value in Stylistik, who is well thought of at her low-profile yard and has scope, on her breeding, to be better than she has so far shown. The hold-up tactics were possibly overdone when she finished well into second on her nursery debut last time and it is interesting to see Luke Morris being given the ride for the first time.
2.15 York: Memorial Day might be as high in the handicap as he should be for now and James Doyle, who has done so well with him, is unavailable. The alternative looks like Earth Drummer, who has not had much luck in three runs this season and was first home up the wrong side in the Cambridgeshire, having met trouble in running. It is of some concern that Daniel Tudhope rides Awake My Soul here but Philip Makin is a perfectly good booking.
2.35 Newmarket: This race may have some influence on the Dewhurst betting, as Ibn Malik, a runner here, was well held by Emotionless, second-favourite for the later race, last time. Special Season makes more appeal, despite his disappointment last time, when soft ground blunted his pace. The drying surface here should suit him better, his debut effort was not far short of stunning and he comes from the William Haggas yard that continues to send out winners.
2.50 York: Victory in an Ayr nursery seemed to prove that Donjuan Triumphant is now on a significant upward curve, having taken five runs to get off the mark. The talented apprentice Jack Garritty, who rode him for the first time that day, is back on board.
3.10 Newmarket: Proven form or gleaming potential, take your pick. Air Force Blue has done almost everything that has been asked of him, his only defeat being a fine second place in the Coventry, and the quality of those he has beaten is sound. One could worry about the fact that he was beaten on his only previous venture to England but he has improved in the three months since then. On the other hand there is Emotionless, who looked very special indeed at Doncaster but now enters Group One company for the first time. My instinctive preference is for proven ability but there was enough promise in what Emotionless did that I shall side with him here and be thankful that he is the bigger odds of the pair at 6-4. Sanus Per Aquam is worth a second look on the basis that one should never ignore a Jim Bolger runner in the Dewhurst, especially since he won a Group race over this course and distance last time.
3.25 York: George Bowen is the sprinter in form for this wildly competitive handicap. The grey ran well in a big-field contest for the third time in a row when going down by just a head in the Ayr Silver Cup and Garritty claims a valuable 3lb.
