The final all-but-unsolvable handicap of the Flat turf season is here. There is something reassuring about looking at the card for the November Handicap at Doncaster and finding that the going is soft once again, a bit like getting socks at Christmas. Specialist soft-ground performers will be the order of the day for me as the type of surface expected does not look the kind that will allow a good-ground horse just about to get away with it.
Awake My Soul (3.30) has appealing credentials, having reliably run well on those few occasions when faced with soft, including when putting up his career best performance in victory at Ayr last year. He went to race in Italy after that but appears to have flopped, perhaps because the surfaces there lacked the necessary juice.
On his return to David O’Meara, he ran very respectably behind a stablemate at York last month, finishing as though this extra quarter-mile would help. It is interesting that he was the choice that day of the stable jockey, Daniel Tudhope, and perhaps this race was already in their minds. In any case odds of 16-1 seem on the generous side.
Seamour must be worth a second look, even though he is half those odds. He won on soft ground at Ascot in the summer and ran as well as could be expected when upped to Group Two level last time. He was unlucky in his draw for the Northumberland Plate and has again fared poorly here but the soft surface should give him time to get involved.
1.50 Doncaster The least exposed in this field, Predominance is a three-year-old with lots more to give, judged on his first two starts. He hosed up on soft ground in his Chepstow maiden and probably ought to have scored in a Newbury handicap last time, when possibly found out by his lack of experience. He should know more here but will need to in a competitive heat. William Haggas is still getting winners at this late stage of the season.
2.05 Wincanton Having lost form in the second half of last season, The Ould Lad is a very interesting prospect now that he has joined Paul Nicholls. A tongue tie is also fitted for the first time, hinting at a reason why he was not finishing off his races from the turn of the year. Still only seven and very fairly rated on the pick of his form, The Ould Lad should be a big runner here if he can rediscover the fluency with which he scored over fences last November. Bertie Boru is another who may be best caught in the first half of the season, though he probably has less in hand over the assessor.
2.20 Doncaster Having switched stables at the end of last year, Nameitwhatyoulike has done nothing but improve for Bryan Smart and fully deserves this tilt at Listed company, having made all to beat Mass Rally over this course and distance last time.
2.30 Aintree Three years ago this kind of test would have been just right for Simonsig but it is asking an awful lot of him at the age of nine, having been sidelined by various issues since March 2013. Purple Bay is much easier to like, having won a Grade Two on this day last year before running second in the Christmas Hurdle. While off the track since, his issues are said to have been minor and are now thought to be entirely in the past. He has the Fighting Fifth as a target.
2.55 Doncaster Michael Appleby is another trainer finishing the season strongly, with six winners in the past fortnight, and his Lahayeb is worth chancing here, having shown highly progressive form on soft ground at Nottingham through the year.
3.05 Aintree There is nothing wrong with the form of Upepito’s neck second to Village Vic at Wetherby last month, the winner having gone in again on Friday. A seven-year-old who showed promise last winter after arriving from France, Upepito suggests there will be more to come.
3.15 Wincanton The market is dominated by a pair of four-year-olds but this will be a tough question for them, especially if the rain arrives in the quantities being forecast. On the other hand, that would suit Melodic Rendezvous, who won this race two years ago from a slightly lower mark and is unbeaten in two visits to this track. An unsuccessful experiment with chasing may have blunted his speed but he will be a contender otherwise.
