The Curragh took another 4mm of rain on Friday, returning the going to “good to yielding” in most places, but that will not be enough to produce ideal conditions for Harzand as he tries to follow up his Derby success in the Irish equivalent on Saturday evening. Dermot Weld’s tough stayer could be vulnerable to something with a bit more toe, perhaps in the form of the 16-1 shot Moonlight Magic (5.20).
Harzand’s first two wins came on heavy going and, while it was only good to soft at Epsom three weeks ago, that ground presented a serious test for three-year-olds after a lot of rain dried out just enough to make it tacky and holding. Dermot Weld’s runner used his superior stamina to outbattle the opposition that day but the ground may not be such a help to him this time.
Nor is that the only concern. While Weld has probably been getting his excuses in early, it makes perfect sense that he would have liked a bit more time to get the horse back to his peak after such an experience, followed by a few days on antibiotics to help him over the injured foot he suffered on Derby morning.
In the circumstances, taking even-money or perhaps odds-on about Harzand does not appeal. Nor is Idaho especially compelling, since his stamina seemed to fail him close home when he was third at Epsom, and that must be a concern with a pacemaker for Harzand in the field.
Support for Moonlight Magic requires that you forgive him a desperate run in the Derby, when he finished tailed off in last. But it can’t have helped that he was rushed up behind a strong pace to minimise the negative effect of a wide draw and the Jim Bolger yard seemed out of sorts at the time.
That could not be said now, with Bolger having had 11 winners in Ireland this month at a 27% strike rate. There must be hope that Moonlight Magic can show his true form in this smaller field around a more conventional track and on a less testing surface.
On his previous run, the superbly bred colt had really impressed in landing the Derrinstown Derby Trial, when Idaho was among those behind him. He has a fair chance of becoming Bolger’s second Irish Derby winner in the space of three years. Alas, the Classic will not be shown live on Channel 4 but can be seen by British viewers on At The Races.
Tips for Channel 4 TV races
2.30 Newcastle Quite a few of these runners are turf regulars and it is hard to know how they will cope with this surface. Chookie Royale, an all-weather specialist, could be a better option. He racked up three wins over the winter and should be the better for a three-month break after slightly losing his form in the spring.
2.45 Newmarket Soft ground is an unknown for Mr Singh but his pedigree gives hope he can cope. He will be sharper for his reappearance run at Goodwood and now sports first-time blinkers, with Frankie Dettori returning to the saddle for the first time since they landed a Group Three at about this time last year.
3.05 Newcastle The move to Jamie Osborne’s yard in the autumn got Boomerang Bob going again, allowing him to score for the first time in two years, and he has continued to run well on all-weather tracks. He was possibly a shade unlucky with his run last time and might be suited by this straight six-furlongs.
3.20 Newmarket It was easy to like Somebody To Love’s debut at Sandown a fortnight ago, when she rocketed past her rivals after seeming clueless in the early stages. Granted the sort of progress her stablemates generally make for a run, she will be very hard to beat here.
3.40 Newcastle The winner of half his all-weather starts, including two of his last three at this trip, Haines has made up into a very useful stayer for Andrew Balding and is still fairly treated on the pick of his form. He was a long way behind Dannyday at Chelmsford in April but raced closer to the hot pace than the eventual winner and it seems a mistake for him to be 25-1 while the other horse is one fifth of those odds.
3.55 Newmarket With the William Haggas yard among the winners after a slow start to the year, it may be worth looking again at Adaay, who was good enough to win a couple of Group Twos last summer. His beaten efforts at the end of that year came in the very best company, so he only needs to be forgiven two flops this spring. The addition of cheekpieces and Dettori mean there are several reasons for hope, so 10-1 may be on the big side.
4.15 Newcastle The first Northumberland Plate on an all-weather surface hardly seems an occasion for rejoicing but at least we have a big, competitive field and some hope that the placement of the stalls on this new layout may not produce quite the same advantage to those drawn low as the turf track did. That being said, stall two looks a help to My Reward, a 12-1 shot who has hit an appealing vein of form for Tim Easterby, who gelded him over the winter. Having finished well to be second in a fair Ripon contest on his debut for the trainer, My Reward made all at Haydock when last seen and is just 3lb higher now. He is well drawn to go to the front again and has more to give if able to set a sustainable pace.
