The betting market seems to have decided that Saturday’s July Cup comes down to two horses. The other 13 runners will probably find a way to prove that such is not the case but there is no quarelling over who has the best chance.
Brazen Beau (3.45) is unlucky not to have won a Group One sprint in this country already, having been beaten by only half a length in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot. That was a fine effort in view of the fact that he raced all by himself on the unfavoured stands side and was held off by a horse who made his challenge around the far side of the field where the ground may have been fastest.
That effort did not come out of a blue sky. Brazen Beau was twice a winner of Group Ones at this distance in his native Australia and would be worth all the respect one can give him here, regardless of other circumstances. As it happens, he is to be ridden this time by the wildly in-form James Doyle and is drawn towards the far rail, which has looked like the best place to be this week.
Muhaarar looks a short price for this first test against older horses. G Force is interesting each-way, now that he returns to six furlongs, five having been too sharp for him in his two runs this year.
1.45 York: Birdman has recovered his best form after a change of stable and is still 9lb below his peak rating, despite six excellent efforts in a row. He is well drawn to take up a handy position.
2.00 Newmarket: Having pulled hard and got no run at Chester last time, Good Contact wears a hood for the first time and drops back in trip. With Doyle returning to the saddle, this promising youngster should be able to show that was not his form.
2.10 Ascot: With Mark Johnston training winners as if his life depended on it, Indescribable is interesting. He has been alternating good runs with bad, which is not unusual for horses from his yard, and can probably be forgiven his Chester flop last time. Five furlongs on fast ground seems his thing, he is probably drawn on the right side and he is handicapped to win when things fall right.
2.20 York: A winner over this distance in Dubai in February, Famous Kid finished well over a shorter trip at Royal Ascot. The Chester Cup did not pan out well for him but this race has a more appealing look and his rating is not harsh.
2.35 Newmarket: From the stable that has won this three times in five years Tony Curtis may be able to savour the sweet smell of success. He overcame greenness to score on his debut, which is always a positive sign for Hannon-trained runners, and can improve beyond rivals that have shown more to this point.
2.45 Ascot: Cable Bay should not be underestimated but Arod looks the quality animal in this field, whether or not he uses the front-running tactics that worked so well at Epsom. He can land this on his way back to Group One company.
2.55 York: A winner at this specialist track back in May, Out Do has a 4lb pull with Kingsgate Native, who beat him at Haydock next time. He needs to be forgiven for his Beverley flop but the return to York may help him.
3.10 Newmarket: One Word More is having a fine season and, given that the winner had a better draw, is due plenty of credit for his narrow defeat at York last time. He seems to have a more helpful starting stall this time, which cannot be said of several at the head of the betting. This is on the sharp side for Bronze Angel but both he and Heaven’s Guest, last year’s winner, make each-way appeal.
3.25 York: Sennockian Star has returned to the form that won him so many races in 2013 and there is nothing wrong with his half-length defeat at Royal Ascot to Mahsoob, even if that one was disappointing in a Group Two on Thursday. Another from the Mark Johnston yard, he has a good draw for a prominent racer.
