Air Force Blue certainly has the best form credentials for the first Classic of the new Flat season, having finished his juvenile year with three Group One wins on the spin. Only two of his 12 rivals in this 2,000 Guineas managed any kind of success when last seen, so this may not be a vintage renewal.
But punters should be wary of simply lining up to back the Aidan O’Brien hotpot at odds-on because there are a couple of concerns, notably the 8mm of rain that fell on Thursday night, Air Force Blue being a horse that prefers a fast surface, or so we believe. The other issue is his status as a May foal, having been born later in the year than 23 of the past 24 winners of this race, which could leave him vulnerable to rivals who have made more physical progress since autumn.
At 12-1 or better, Galileo Gold (3.45) is a fair each-way alternative. Hugo Palmer’s charge landed a Group Two at Glorious Goodwood on a surface similar to what he will get here.
He then proved his stamina for this trip with a running-on third at Longchamp in October. His work this spring has got Frankie Dettori excited and he might just have enough quality to nick this if the rain really has got into the ground.
2.00 Newmarket The extra two furlongs here should be a big help for Mutamakkin, who finished strongly into third place at the Craven meeting on his first start since being gelded. That was the handicap debut for Sir Michael Stoute’s runner and he looks well treated when things fall right.
2.15 Goodwood Last year’s winner, Miss Marjurie, sets a good standard here but the progressive and unexposed Bateel appears capable of exceeding it. From the David Simcock yard that has started the year well, she would relish some give underfoot, having had “soft” in the going description for all three of her races so far.
2.30 Newmarket This is extraordinarily competitive but 16-1 is big about Move In Time, the Abbaye winner from 2014. David O’Meara’s chestnut continued to show excellent form last year, winning twice, and will be sharper for his reappearance effort, when six furlongs proved one too far.
2.50 Goodwood While he has been best fresh in the past, there is enough promise in Exchequer’s form to think he could build on his reappearance success at Lingfield, his first start since joining the in-form David Brown. He is only 2lb higher here but seeks his first turf victory.
3.05 Newmarket These rivals ought not to be good enough to trouble Jack Hobbs, who should be more at home over this mile and a half than the 10 furlongs over which he was beaten in a top-class race from a tough draw when last seen.
