It seems an odd coincidence that, on this weekend when so much of the best racing is in France, Britain stages a Group One which is dominated by French raiders. What are they doing over here when there’s so much good racing just down the road?
Newmarket’s Sun Chariot Stakes must fit very nicely into the programme for French female milers because the race has been won five times in the past seven years by such a horse. Nor is this a one-man phenomenon. Three different French trainers have been successful in that time.
A third of today’s field is made up of Gallic runners and Ervedya (4.00) looks especially dangerous to these eyes. Three times a Group One winner last year, she has had fewer chances to show off in 2016 but ran to a high level when third behind males in the Marois last time.
That form looks solid, considering the second and fourth have since run first and second in another Group One, the Moulin. First-time cheekpieces may help sustain her focus and she has the assistance of Christophe Lemaire, who has a startlingly good big-race record at Newmarket for an overseas rider.
Alice Springs is an understandable choice of favourite but her two Group One successes this year came in quite winnable contests and it seems to me that the balance of Ervedya’s form is stronger. The available 4-1 looks generous.
2.15 Newmarket A tongue tie may have helped last time but Sweet Dragon Fly had looked progressive in any case and a 4lb rise for that Lingfield win looks lenient.
2.30 Ascot Remarkably, just four three-year-olds have shown up for this race in the past five years and three of them have won, suggesting the weight concession from the older horses is advantageous. That means Move Up and Goodwood Zodiac demand close attention, with the former preferred. Unexposed and progressive, Move Up comes from a yard that seems in good form now after a summer virus.
2.50 Newmarket Carenot looked ahead of her mark when scoring at Sandown last time and should still be so after her 7lb rise. The first-time visor may have made a difference that day, so backers must hope the switch to blinkers is as effective. William Haggas seems a trainer to stick with at this tricky time of year, with many Flat stables losing the winning habit.
3.05 Ascot This centres on Shalaa, who ought to win hands down but has not raced all year owing to a pelvic injury and is using this as a prep-run for Champions Day. In the circumstances, short odds do not appeal and Outback Traveller may be up to causing a shock. A winner on this card two years ago, he has since switched stables and landed the valuable Wokingham Handicap over course and distance. A similar level of form might be good enough here and I can forgive his effort last time, at York, where he has flopped in the past.
3.15 Redcar Rainbow Mist finished within two lengths of The Last Lion when last seen and that rival has since won the Middle Park at 25-1. While it would clearly be dangerous to take that form at face value, this colt will relish today’s extra furlong and seems very progressive. On the other hand, his odds are short enough for such a big field.
3.25 Newmarket Roger Charlton may have spotted another good young jockey in David Egan, who is two from two when riding for the Wiltshire trainer. Egan claims a useful 7lb off Charlton’s Pure Fantasy here, which may help the filly follow up her Sandown success last time.
3.40 Ascot Only with reluctance is Librisa Breeze passed over, his stable having apparently gone off the boil. Firmament might be a better option, having looked quite unlucky when beaten half a length here last time in his attempt to win three good handicaps on the spin.
4.15 Ascot Dropping back to this five furlongs seemed to help Priceless land a similar race last time and this zippy filly can go in again at the expense of Double Up, winless for more than a year.
