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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Chris Cook

Talking Horses: Saturday’s best bets for Kempton and Warwick

Doesyourdogbite
Doesyourdogbite, seen here with Aidan Coleman after his win at Kempton on Boxing Day, is now unbeaten in three over hurdles. Photograph: racingfotos/Rex/Shutterstock

Today’s TV Racing

Jump racing will make a poignant return to Kempton this afternoon, just days after plans were announced for the track’s closure. Doesyourdogbite (2.40) may prove himself to be one of the last Kempton specialists by following up his course win from Boxing Day in the Lanzarote.

A modest handicapper on the Flat, where he started with Andrew Hollinshead, Doesyourdogbite is now unbeaten in three over hurdles. It might have been expected that he would do well in his new discipline, as a half-brother to Ainama and Dark And Dangerous, who were both useful novices and ran to a high level at this particular track.

Doesyourdogbite beat 14 rivals on his handicap debut here, making up plenty of ground in the straight. He looks the type to cope well with a step up in class and another 6lb may not stop him from producing a career best. He’s on offer at 11-2.

Modus has been threatening to win a good handicap hurdle and perhaps this step up in distance will do the trick. He was disappointing at Ascot, though, and it’s starting to feel like a long time since he actually got his head in front.

At 12-1, a better alternative may be the progressive and lightly-raced Lord Of The Island, who wasn’t done with when falling at Exeter last time. He took a knock to the head from a backmarker that day and it is to be hoped the experience hasn’t taken a toll on him. Otherwise, he’d make each-way appeal at 12-1, with this step back up in trip likely to help.

1.50 Warwick This is a race for sloggers but class has shone through in some cases, with Rocky Creek and Black Hercules on the roll of honour. Mystical Knight looks good enough to join them on that list, having been given his chance in a Grade One at the end of his hurdling season. A dual-winning pointer two years ago, he made a predictably good start over fences at Hereford last month, when a first-time tongue tie may also have helped, and he looks the type that Rebecca Curtis does well with.

2.05 Kempton Doubts exist about all four runners here and Vaniteux is the least disconcerting. He may have needed his November return and was giving plenty of weight away when third of 11 at Cheltenham last time. This step up in trip in a small field around here might suit him well over fences and he has a 12lb pull for three lengths with Quite By Chance on their November form.

2.25 Warwick A Pertemps qualifier, this one is on its way to being as competitive as the final in March. Lough Derg Leader may prove the one with most in hand over the assessor, having scooted up on his handicap debut at Doncaster in November, despite the race seeming to unfold in a way that would not suit. He should appreciate the extra emphasis on stamina here. His Herefordshire trainer, Tom Lacey, is worth following in handicaps just now.

3.00 Warwick Peregrine Run might be the best of these, judging by his Cheltenham win in November, but these ground conditions seem unlikely to suit. No similar doubt exists about Geordie Des Champs, who is three from four over hurdles and still has considerable scope to climb the ranks. His first defeat in a jumps race came last time when he couldn’t give weight and a start to a well-treated winner on his handicap debut but that was still a fine effort.

3.15 Kempton Silvergrove peaked with an all-the-way success over this course and distance in February, at which point he was still fairly new to the yard of Ben Pauling. He ran well again at the Festival but has lost his way this season and seemed not to relish a first spin over the National fences last month. Aidan Coleman rides for the first time and this might be a good time to catch the nine-year-old, now that he tackles a more winnable contest.

3.35 Warwick Good luck to Willy Twiston-Davies, who hasn’t ridden in a race over fences since May 2012 and must return to the job in this 20-runner handicap. As if that weren’t enough to worry about, he’s on a horse that seems quite likely to start favourite. I don’t share the market’s enthusiasm for Ballycross, who remains a maiden over fences, and will go instead with the 11-1 shot Viva Steve. This one looked talented but was only an occasional winner for Mick Channon. Fergal O’Brien improved him to win at Ayr in November, in a first-time tongue tie, and I believe there will be more to come off this 7lb higher mark.

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