Who does not like a John Gosden-trained progressive three-year-old favourite for a major handicap? But the problem with Cape Cova for Doncaster’s season-ending November Handicap is his style of racing, which has been very come-from-behind since he stepped up into valuable races.
Even with blinkers fitted, the fear must be that he will have too many of his 22 rivals to pass in the home straight here, with the ground so dry that something in front will keep going. He only just got to the front when winning last time in a field of half the size and over a longer distance.
Nicky Mackay, who gets the ride, could not get him to the front in time at York last month. All in all, his position as favourite makes him untempting.
Of all the interesting alternatives, William Hunter (3.35) is the one that jumps out. Progressive all year, he has won three of his last five and, at 20-1, I am prepared to take the chance that his latest flop was just an aberration.
He travels so strongly that a big-field handicap might really suit him, though there is always the risk that he might not find much off the bridle. Riding for the first time is the useful claimer Hollie Doyle, who also teamed up with this trainer, Alan King, to be second in the Cesarewitch with a 50-1 shot. As I type, she has just pinched a race at Newcastle from the front on a 25-1 shot.
1.50 Doncaster Ian Williams is ending the season strongly and it is interesting to see that he has booked Josephine Gordon for the very first time for his Boy In The Bar. The winner of back-to-back sprint handicaps in late summer, this chestnut has continued to run well while suggesting that the step up to seven furlongs will help.
2.10 Wincanton There is an obvious risk in taking at face value the impressive success of Sceau Royal at Cheltenham a fortnight ago in a race that might, months from now, look like unreliable early-season form. But he was almost as promising at this stage last year and sticking with him here may be the right call, with question marks against each of his opponents.
2.25 Doncaster The four-year-old Growl blew his handicap mark to smithereens by running second, beaten by a length, in the Group One sprint on Champions Day, so he had better be up to Listed level. The cheekpieces that went on that day are back again and will hopefully have a similarly invigorating effect. Richard Fahey’s yard remains among the winners.
2.40 Aintree Zarkandar cannot be a strong favourite, having not won in this country for three and a half years and facing what could turn into an unsuitable test of speed. Mister Miyagi has to give weight away all round but conditions should suit him and he needed his reappearance outing. His only defeat last season was in the Supreme.
3.00 Doncaster A half-sister to a dual Group One winner, Entsar seems to be going the right way and can make her three-year-old allowance tell. Her Newbury handicap success last time suggests she belongs in this company at least.
3.10 Aintree It would be no surprise if the five-year-old Orbasa were to take a significant step forward this season, having joined Paul Nicholls in the middle of last winter in time to show a useful level of form. His Ayr second to Definitly Red looks especially strong and there should be more to come against some exposed-looking rivals.
3.20 Wincanton Not many high-rated chasers want a really sound surface but this is right up Cocktails At Dawn’s street and he is surely way overpriced at 14-1. His last season became disappointing and he was surely over the top by the time of his Aintree flop in May. But he began it with a fluent Chepstow success from a mark only 5lb below the one he has now, beating Native River and Blaklion among others. His stamina is possibly the weak point but I think it may hold up in these circumstances.
