The top of the betting for Cheltenham’s BetVictor Gold Cup has an unconvincing look and it is especially surprising that More Of That is no bigger than 5-1 as I type. While a wind operation can often signal an improved showing, in his case this is a repeat of an operation from last year that did not give him sufficient help when he was third at the Festival.
While there is scope for More Of That to be better than his rating he hardly looks chucked in and he comes from the Jonjo O’Neill yard that has been struggling for winners. Meanwhile the second-favourite, Frodon, is trying to be the first four-year-old ever to win this tough contest and had his most recent outing only last weekend.
A more straightforward case can be made for Double Shuffle (2.25), a 12-1 shot. From the Tom George yard that has been going strongly, he had an almost ideal prep for this when a fast-finishing second at Chepstow last month. That was as good as anything he did last season but better is expected this time. The six-year-old was third in the influential novice handicap chase at the last Festival.
The each-way value could be Vintage Vinnie, who appears to be back in form this autumn, now that the troubles of the Rebecca Curtis yard seem a thing of the past. Having won twice in September, he was third of four round Newton Abbot. That defeat will put some off but Vintage Vinnie actually ran some way better than he was entitled to, judging by handicap marks.
This might be on the sharp side for him but he can win a good race off this rating and the 33-1 is surely too big.
1.50 Cheltenham: There is a chance he may need this but Alvarado looks overpriced at 20-1, running from a mark only 4lb higher than when he won this race three years ago. The chestnut has not won since but he has had only six runs in all that time and has been placed in two Grand Nationals and a Scottish National, his second place to Vicente in the Ayr race in April being his most recent outing. He will appreciate this decent surface and represents the Fergal O’Brien yard which is flying along, with six winners in the past fortnight.
2.05 Wetherby: It is worth forgiving Wells De Lune for his Carlisle flop last time, when he ruined his chance by persistently jumping left. The five-year-old had looked promising when making all at Warwick in September, only his second attempt over fences.
3.00 Cheltenham: Charlie Mann has been in fine form since August and further progress is possible from his Some Kinda Lama, unbeaten in two spins round Hereford last month. The most recent of those was an emphatic handicap success, from which the third horse came out and won the next day. Some Kinda Lama needs to do much better to take this from an 8lb higher mark but he looks unexposed and progressive.
3.15 Wetherby: Dan Skelton has proved himself able to get a horse ready after a long absence, so a chance is taken that Applesandpierres, a small type, can do himself justice on this first start for 18 months. He hosed up in a Worcester novice hurdle on his only start since his pointing days and starts in handicaps on a fair-looking rating.
3.35 Cheltenham: JP McManus may get a second consecutive win in this through For Good Measure, a brother to Balthazar King and based with the same trainer as his sibling, Philip Hobbs. This five-year-old has taken time to come to himself but his last three hurdles runs have been promising, especially his strong-finishing second here on his seasonal return last month.
