Saturday’s ITV4 races
There are more obvious potential winners in the 27-strong field for Ascot’s Victoria Cup than Shady McCoy (4.00) but none of them looks better value at the available odds at the time of typing. The seven-year-old, winner of almost a third of his 23 races on turf, is offered at 50-1, which seems a shocking slight in view of his form.
It would have to be conceded that his reappearance effort was uninspiring but ageing horses are entitled to need their first run back. He was also comfortably held on his reappearance in 2016 before winning next time at Glorious Goodwood.
He is back to a mark only 2lb higher than that most recent success and comes from the Ian Williams yard that has been in excellent form for over a year. His draw on the stands’ side might be a problem but it is hard to be adamant about these things at the modern Ascot. The risk is certainly built into the price.
1.55 Lingfield The Sky Is Blazing looked classy on her debut but this is a major step up from a Newcastle maiden. It may be wiser to take advantage of a rare opportunity to go with an Aidan O’Brien non-favourite in Pocketfullofdreams, who is much more experienced, if winless. She started with David Wachman last year and has continued to improve. Last time she was second in a Listed contest after racing a lot closer to a strong pace than the winner.
2.15 Ascot The lightly raced Mohatem travelled kindly and won comfortably at Yarmouth last month, his first start since being gelded. This is significantly tougher but he may have quite a bit more to offer.
2.30 Lingfield How utterly surprising if O’Brien were able to win another Derby trial. Sir John Lavery represents him here and, while his preparation has apparently not been straightforward, both pedigree and form make him the one to beat.
2.50 Ascot With the exception of a backend flop Baydar improved throughout last year, winning competitive handicaps at Sandown and Newbury. He looks as if he belongs in this grade at least, though the step up in distance is not without risk on this return to action.
3.10 Haydock Peace And Co has clearly been through a lot since March 2015, when he was such a good-looking winner of the Triumph Hurdle. But he has come down to an attractive mark and there was some promise in his recent return to action at Ayr.
3.25 Ascot Sagely makes some appeal but Ed Dunlop’s yard seems a little out of sorts at this stage. Preference is for Raven’s Lady, who was a bit keen on her reappearance but ran well just the same and looks on a fair mark for this handicap debut.
3.40 Lingfield Qemah is clearly the best of these and it is surprising that a filly who won Group Ones in June and July can race unpenalised in a Grade Three the next May. But she comes from a yard that has suffered with the virus and this step back in trip may not be ideal, so such short odds cannot be taken. Mix And Mingle could be the alternative after a career best on her reappearance at Newmarket.
Tips for all Saturday races
Hexham
1.45 Hint Of Grey 2.20 Hey Listen 2.55 Civil Unrest 3.30 Grand Enterprise 4.05 Vertigo 4.40 Hattons Hill 5.15 Dancing Amy
Lingfield
1.55 Pocketfullofdreams 2.30 Sir John Lavery 3.05 Rattle On 3.40 Mix And Mingle (nb) 4.15 Dream Of Summer 4.50 Cool Bahamian 5.20 May Sky
Haydock
2.00 Sir Mangan 2.35 Jaameh 3.10 Peace And Co 3.45 Certificate 4.20 Orion’s Bow 4.55 Kilcrea Vale 5.25 Leader’s Legacy 5.55 Next Sensation
Nottingham
2.05 Merlin 2.40 Silverrica 3.15 Masterson 3.50 Lady Macapa 4.25 Tomahawk Kid 5.00 Trade Route 5.35 Qortaaj
Ascot
2.15 Mohatem 2.50 Baydar 3.25 Raven’s Lady 4.00 Shady McCoy (nap) 4.35 Haddaf 5.10 Nightingale Valley
Warwick
5.30 Blairs Cove 6.00 Black Mischief 6.30 Braqueur D’Or 7.00 Baga Bihoue 7.30 Brahms De Clermont 8.00 Mister Dick 8.30 Rhaegar
Thirsk
5.45 Noah Amor 6.15 Kinloch Pride 6.45 Top Of The Glas 7.15 Man About Town 7.45 Broadhaven Honey 8.15 Tribal Conquest 8.45 Lackaday
