Today’s best bet, by Chris Cook
This morning brings news that the Gambling Commission has biffed a gambling website with an eye-watering fine of £7.8m. It reminded me of my summer interview with Sarah Harrison, the GC chief executive, who is dealing out unprecedented punishments like the first sheriff a town ever had.
“Far more willing to show her teeth than her predecessors were,” was how one betting insider described her when I asked. And today’s news is further evidence, 888 having been found to have failed in their obligations towards vulnerable gamblers and by extension to those people close to those vulnerable gamblers.
The GC has definitely made progress under Harrison. Still, I wish it were more prepared to kick up a fuss in cases where your average, non-vulnerable punter is having trouble extracting his winnings from a firm. When I have asked about such cases in the past, including the very recent past, the GC has been cagey to the point of silence.
My focus today is on Chelmsford, where Piedita is a predictably short favourite for the staying handicap. She’s a fairly typical Sir Mark Prescott type who got a beatable mark from maiden defeats and is now 2/2 since stepping up to this distance and moving into handicaps. She’s 2lb well in under a penalty for last week’s Lingfield win and I can easily see why people expect her winning run to continue.
But I eventually decided there’s more promise in Hugo Palmer’s Dukinta (2.20), a 4-1 shot, who also earned a low mark through maiden defeats before bolting up in her first handicap, stepped up in distance and with a visor fitted. Gee, it seems this is a game that more than one can play.
Sure, Dukinta has been raised 11lb for her success, which is a big number. But Piedita is 12lb higher than for her first handicap success, achieved three days before Dukinta’s. The only difference is that Piedita has managed to squeeze another run into the intervening time. Could that be an advantage for Dukinta, who has had 22 days since her last run?
Both fillies have been winning on turf with some cut and now make the switch to all-weather. That might not be great news for Piedita, a daughter of Authorized, who has produced many mudlovers. But it should be fine for Dukinta, a daughter of Dubawi, whose progeny have often done well on artificial surfaces. Dukinta is also a half-sister to Grandeur, who was rated 115 when he won the Easter Classic on Lingfield’s Polytrack.
All in all, I’d say the signs suggest Dukinta has at least as much chance to be ahead of her mark as Piedita or anything else in the race. I’ll cheerfully take the 4-1.
There’s been some interest this morning in Master Of Heaven (3.50), who has lost his way on turf over the summer. He’s dropped back to 53, the rating from which he won at Brighton in May, and could bounce back now that he returns to Chelmsford, where he’s won twice from his last four visits. He’s 9-1 from an opening 14s.
In similar vein at Wolverhampton tonight, Top Of The Bank (7.10) is 13-2 from a general 14-1 when betting started. He’s had a fruitless summer on turf but won three of his last six on all-weather surfaces, including at this track in January. He’s dropped 8lb during his losing run and is now 4lb below the mark from which he won at Lingfield in March.
Tips for all Thursday races
Chelmsford
1.20 Austrian School 1.50 Honiara 2.20 Dukinta (nap) 2.50 Aljuljalah 3.20 Cainhoe Star 3.50 Master Of Heaven 4.20 Chilli Jam 4.50 Mobbhij
Musselburgh
1.30 Brandy Station 2.00 Hamba Moyo 2.30 Claramara 3.00 Trooper’s Gold 3.30 Erinyes 4.00 Peach Melba 4.35 Quiet Moment 5.10 See Vermont
Bath
1.40 Just For The Craic 2.10 Tobouggaloo 2.40 Affair 3.10 Dandilion 3.40 Paint 4.10 Chalky 4.40 Jaganory
Sedgefield
4.30 Ange Des Malberaux 5.00 Man Look 5.30 Ashoka 6.00 Almost Gemini 6.30 Highbury High 7.00 Shining Romeo 7.30 Shrubland
Wolverhampton
5.40 Wolfcatcherjack 6.10 Military Parade 6.40 Just For Fun 7.10 Top Of The Bank (nb) 7.40 Moxy Mares 8.10 Envisaging 8.40 Robbie Roo Roo
