Wednesday’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Enjoyable as it is to contemplate Enable’s participation in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, one consequence is that punters will have another of those really difficult decisions to make. Do you take short odds about a horse who, for all her quality, is trying to do something that has never been done before?
No horse has ever won the Arc and the Breeders’ Cup Turf in the same season. There are lots of possible reasons, starting with the fact that you’ve just put up a really huge performance and now you’re going to have to run to a similar level just four weeks later, thousands of miles away.
You were probably trained with the Arc in mind, so the Turf is an afterthought and competitive Group Ones are hard to win as an afterthought. You may have done enough for the year. You may not have enjoyed the journey. You may have appreciated Longchamp’s long straights and a bit of give in the ground, and missed both in Kentucky, or Florida, or California.
Clearly, it’s possible to win the Arc and follow up in America. Sakhee came up short by a matter of inches in the Classic against the mighty Tiznow, who looked like he could eat him. Golden Horn went down by just half a length in the Turf to Found, who was good enough to win her own Arc the next year. Found was then beaten in the Turf as reigning Arc winner but, impressively, had another race in between, when second in the Champion Stakes.
What I like about Enable’s prospects is that she can race handily. I’ve seen a lot of Breeders’ Cup races go wrong for European challengers who followed their usual hold-up tactics and then struggled to make up the ground on those tight US circuits.
Enable will also be a lot fresher than most Arc winners, having had just two runs this year and not been at peak fitness for either of them, according to her trainer. As John Gosden said last week: “It’s not often you run a horse in the Arc and the race puts them right.”
Today’s action sees jump racing return to Wetherby but the ground there remains good to firm in places, so fields are small. I’m afraid there’s not much rain in their forecast for the next week, so the following week is going to have to be wet if the Charlie Hall meeting is going to have any value.
Willie Boy (3.45) will do for me at 2-1 in the Bobby Renton. His best run last season was his first one, when he beat nine rivals at Newbury, and I’m sure that will not have been lost on Charlie Longsdon, who inherited him from Venetia Williams over the summer. The horse, who goes well on a sound surface, has been given a wind op over the summer. His main rival is the classy Ballyandy, who has a bit to prove over fences after his three runs last season.
A step up in distance could make quite a difference for Phoenician Star (2.20) at Bath and Brian Meehan’s three-year-old is now 8-1 after opening at 20-1 yesterday. He ran on nicely to be beaten a length last time and I think a bit of cut also helps him. Weirdly, it’s softer at Bath than at Wetherby.
Nottingham 1.30 Deebee 2.00 Poetic Legacy 2.30 Dorah 3.05 Moon King 3.35 Existential 4.05 Elasia 4.40 Samovar 5.15 Savannah’s Show
Bath 1.50 West End Charmer 2.20 Phoenician Star 2.55 Altra Vita 3.25 Haats Off 3.55 Our Oystercatcher 4.30 Thistimelastyear 5.05 Maknifico 5.35 Elation
Wetherby 2.10 King D’Argent 2.45 Lough Derg Spirit 3.15 I Just Know 3.45 Willie Boy (nap) 4.20 Notnow Seamus 4.55 Oak Vintage 5.25 Midnight Shadow
Newcastle 5.10 Archibelle 5.45 Cross My Mind (nb) 6.15 Brendan 6.45 Drogon 7.15 Chitra 7.45 New Orleans 8.15 Pickett’s Charge 8.45 Momentarily
