Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
How stiff should our steeplechase fences be? It was a question that came up again last Friday, when Ypsilanti barely lifted a leg at Doncaster’s final fence but stayed upright and didn’t even lose much momentum.
“That fence must be made of dust!” someone tweeted and I remember sharing the sentiment. If you jump as poorly as that in a contest that values jumping, your winning chance ought to be compromised.
But then an hour later those same fences were rather too much for Aux Ptits Soins, sent off at odds-on in the novice chase but beaten out of sight in last place of the four runners. So perhaps we’ll call Ypsilanti an aberration.
Anyway, he (Ypsilanti) is back out again today in the last race at Towcester because his connections spotted that he doesn’t have to carry a penalty if he runs in a hurdle race after that fences success on his handicap debut. Any horse that wins a handicap by 13 lengths and runs off the same mark a week later is clearly of enormous interest.
But this is a point to point winner who may well have improved for the switch to fences last week and is not guaranteed to show the same level of form back over the smaller obstacles. More worryingly, the going will be completely different, as he faces heavy (and Towcester heavy at that) rather than good. His point to point form suggests he’s happier on a sounder surface.
So I shall eschew the 6-4 in favour of 6-1 about Early Retirement (4.25), who improved for soft going on his handicap debut when runner-up at Warwick on New Year’s Eve. The winner got away from him that day but he moved up nicely into contention, finished his race well and may even be fitter again for this third run of the season.
The going is also heavy at Wincanton, where River Frost (3.10) can put himself into the picture for a Festival handicap by getting his third win on the bounce. He is widely regarded as a fortunate winner of his most recent race, at Kempton, because the leader fell at the last but I felt Alan King’s runner was finishing strongly enough to win anyway. This step up in trip and a softer surface should help and 5-2 is fine. Copain De Classe looks a false favourite to me on this handicap debut.
Venetia Williams had only seven winners in January, her lowest total for five years in a month in which she traditionally shines, but her string seems to be running into some kind of form. I’ll take a chance on the fitness of Vic De Touzaine (3.45), who was progressive in a handful of races last winter but has not been seen since a Leicester success in March, on similar ground to this. The grey looks weighted to win again if he’s straight enough and 5-1 is good news.
At Chelmsford tonight, Ravens Quest (6.25) is worth a second look in a hot 10-furlong handicap, early support having taken him to 9-1 from 16s. He’s only 2lb higher than when scoring at Nottingham last summer and a couple of recent all-weather spins have shown he’s well treated when everything falls right.
Since this chestnut joined John Ryan in the autumn, Danny Brock has been aboard. Brock is 1/55 for the yard, whereas Adam Kirby, who gets the ride tonight, is 21/121, or 16/81 on Ryan’s older horses.
Finally, there’s 9-2 about Tetradrachm (7.30), a half-brother to the Gold Cup winner Rite Of Passage, stepping up to a marathon distance for the first time as he makes his debut for David Simcock. He hasn’t been seen since finishing lame on his handicap debut at Bath in May, when he was with David Lanigan, but his mark looks fair on his previous maiden success at Lingfield and indeed he held a Derby entry at that time. Perhaps he’ll need this but he’s the type to be a better horse this year.
Chelmsford
5.50 Yasood 6.25 Ravens Quest (nap) 7.00 The Big Lad 7.30 Tetradrachm 8.00 Angel Of Darkness 8.30 Whaleweigh Station 9.00 Mezyan
Southwell
1.45 Roy’s Legacy 2.20 Samphire Coast 2.55 My Renaissance 3.30 Serenity Now 4.05 Shearian 4.35 Falcao
Towcester
1.35 Top Ville Ben 2.10 Goring Two 2.45 Pinnacle Peter 3.20 Sheneededtherun 3.55 Shanann Star 4.25 Early Retirement
Wincanton
1.25 Midnight Maestro 2.00 Casse Tete 2.35 Naranja 3.10 River Frost 3.45 Vic De Touzaine (nb) 4.15 Ask The Weatherman 4.45 Understatement
