Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
The creation of the Horserace Bettors Forum last year was an early success story for the BHA’s new chief executive, Nick Rust, and I’ve been impressed by the diligent, imaginative and hard-working way in which the forum has gone about the hard work of giving punters a single voice. It’s deflating, then, to read this first annual statement from the chairman, which makes clear how much work remains to be done before the HBF can be seen as a significant force in racing politics.
It seems the Forum has been ignored, quite inappropriately, by the Starting Price Regulatory Commission, and also by major bookmaking firms including Betfred, Paddy Power, Stan James and Boylesports. And no politician has yet spoken up to give the HBF their backing.
Of course, what politicians really respect is a body that can demonstrate extensive public support. So if you bet on horses and you’d like the views of those who bet on racing to be taken more seriously by the powerful, follow this link to get in touch with the HBF to share your thoughts and / or express your support.
It would please the HBF to see the swift manner in which Hamilton’s clerk of the course, Sulekha Varma, communicated this morning’s good news that racing goes ahead there after a morning inspection. Varma tweeted the news at 6.30am, presumably while still standing on the soggy turf.
It would have been a pity to lose the Scottish track’s last fixture of the year but the test for runners there today cannot be underestimated. Varma recorded a GoingStick reading of 4.4. Bearing in mind that lower means softer, I should say that Hamilton hasn’t returned a reading of less than 5 in the whole of the GoingStick archive, which goes back to the start of 2013.
As I’ve said before in this space, one can be fairly confident that certain horses won’t cope well with such conditions but it is much harder to be sure about which horses will relish them. ‘Mudlovers’ don’t seem as reliable, on soft, as top-of-the-ground types are on fast going, possibly because churning through hock-deep muck is a lot of hard work.
Anyway, I see hope in Shahaama (2.50), a three-year-old sprinter from Mick Channon’s yard who seems well treated, judging by the achievements of her siblings. Four of her six handicap outings have been on fast ground and that doesn’t seem to have suited her but it’s the other two that interest me.
She got off the mark at Goodwood in mid-June when the going was soft and there was rain not long before the ‘off’. Given the chance to race on a surface with some give at Salisbury last time, she travelled strongly but could finish only fourth after meeting trouble at a crucial stage, finishing well.
She’s been dropped 1lb for that and is only 2lb higher than for her Goodwood success. Odds of 4-1 appeal, although a handful of others in the 10-runner field also have respectable chances.
I’m surprised to be getting 14-1 about Royal Holiday (4.20) in the mile handicap, his four turf wins having been on either soft or heavy. It may not surprise you to learn that this grinding chestnut also has seven wins at Southwell to his name.
He needs to improve on what he showed in his last two starts but the going here will be much more suitable and he comes from the Marjorie Fife yard that is having its best year and is on a 21% strike-rate this month (4/19). Royal Holiday is just 1lb higher than for his latest win, at Redcar in March. Look for him to test this field from the front.
In the opener at Bath, 11-2 is fair about Fine Resolve (2.10), who joined the sharp Alexandra Dunn in August. Flat racing is generally a means to an end for this trainer but Fine Resolve has not shown much aptitude for twig-hopping, whereas he finished strongly to be second when returned to the level a week ago.
Tongue tie and blinkers, fitted for the first time that day, will hopefully continue to help. Fine Resolve gets to run from the same mark, 12lb below the rating he had when he was previously seen on the Flat back in 2012.
I’ll enjoy watching the jumping at Newton Abbot but it’s not much of a card for punters, with two three-runner races. Next Sensation, a Grand Annual winner, has a clear chance in the 3.30pm but I still can’t back him at 9-4.
We are no longer able to continue with competitions every week, but they will still run in the biggest weeks (Cheltenham, Aintree, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and maybe one or two others, as well as the Christmas quiz).
We’ll still have a Talking Horses each day for tips, analysis and news, so we very much hope you’ll join us to chew over whatever racing happens to be going on and post your tips or racing-related comments below.
