The British Horseracing Authority expects to publish its “recovery plan” for the sport following the coronavirus pandemic later today, including the “nine goals” for the long-term health of racing which were promised by Nick Rust, its chief executive, in an interview with ITV Racing on Saturday.
A big push on syndicates to shore up the ownership base, a potential deal between the Horsemen’s Group and racecourses on prize-money levels and changes to the shape and size of the fixture list, based on some high-end modelling and forecasting, are among the ideas which are likely to feature in the plan. All the major interest groups have signed up to its analysis and objectives, which can only be a positive sign, though the document is also expected to underline that the recovery process will take years to complete.
As a result, it may be more of a “stability-then-recovery” plan, designed to insulate the sport as much as possible from the depths of the post-lockdown recession, before a hoped-for economic bounce next year, which would bring more certainty about racing’s various income streams.
The problem, however, is that there is only so much that the sport itself can do about the most important step forward: the readmission of spectators to racecourses, and the return to a raceday experience that at least vaguely resembles the old normal of only six months ago. Until paying spectators return in significant numbers, the grim financial reality is that no recovery plan can make any serious headway.
Racing is working on the basis that the government is keen to get fans back into sports stadiums sooner rather than later, and expects to see an announcement on trials with limited attendance at “elite” venues some time this week. From racing’s point of view, that kicks the process on into September, when the four-day St Leger Festival at Doncaster, which opens on 9 September, remains an obvious candidate. But with the government also intent on getting all children back to school around the same time, who knows?
Its recent behaviour patterns suggest that a last-minute change of heart, like the one which scuppered Goodwood’s plan for a 5,000 crowd on 1 August, is always going be a distinct possibility, and the current 1 October target for a general return of socially-distanced crowds at major sporting events would then be out of reach.
And even when the first paying racegoer since March sets foot on a track, the raceday experience will still be a long way short of what it needs to be for the sport to have any future. There will be little or no freedom to roam around, limited hospitality and, in some cases, probably no chance to watch the actual races, in order to restrict movement between the front and back of the grandstand. This will all have knock-on effects on sponsorship and hospitality revenue, adding to the impact of reduced ticket revenue from restricted attendance.
This is the sort of uncertainty that racing, and all major sports for that matter, will have to learn to live with in the months and years ahead.
Tuesday’s tips
Oisin Murphy’s serene progress towards a second successive Flat jockeys’ championship took a knock at Ayr on Monday evening when he picked up a seven-day ban for careless riding following victory on the 2-9 shot Tiritomba, ruling him out of both the St Leger meeting and Irish Champions Weekend next month.
Murphy, who is 18 winners in front of Tom Marquand in the title race, had earlier ridden his first winner at Ayr since a memorable afternoon in September 2013, when he was a teenaged apprentice and completed a four-timer on Ayr Gold Cup day including the big race itself. There is no indication as yet whether Murphy will lodge an appeal against his latest suspension, which is due to begin on 7 September.
He has six booked rides at Yarmouth, when Smokey (7.30) could be his best chance of a winner in the concluding sprint handicap.
Catterick has had 6mm of rain already, and while it also suggests that “there is no risk of abandonment” – unlike Wednesday’s card at Chepstow, which was called off a couple of hours ago – hanging over Tuesday’s meeting, the ground is already soft and expected to deteriorate as the day goes on. That should not be an issue for Cormier (1.25), as while the ground was good-to-firm when he landed a gamble at Catterick earlier this month, he has decent form on heavy ground in the past.
Bangor
12.00 Some Chaos, 12.30 Coulonces, 1.00 Irish Prophecy, 1.35 Percy Street, 2.05 His Dream, 2.35 Scartare, 3.05 Vocaliser, 3.35 Cool Country, 4.05 Le Boulevardier.
Catterick
12.50 Blind Beggar, 1.25 Cormier (nap), 1.55 Stag Horn (nb), 2.25 Star Citizen, 2.55 Deft, 3.25 Mr Carpenter, 4.00 With Thanks, 4.35 Twin Appeal, 5.05 Vivacious Spirit, 5.35 Lagenda.
Yarmouth
3.20 Ridgeway Avenue, 3.55 Flirty Rascal, 4.25 Khabib, 5.00 Molly Mai, 5.30 Sonnet Rose, 6.00 Ubla, 6.30 Areehaa, 7.00 Lunar Deity, 7.30 Smokey
Stag Horn (1.55) also has form with plenty of cut, and while is the surface is more of an unknown for Mr Carpenter (3.25), there were no obvious reasons to think his 100-1 win at York last time was a fluke and he is just 2lb higher.
