There was a rare show of unity between trainers and bookmakers on Tuesday as leading names including Nigel Twiston-Davies and Evan Williams lent their support to an idea floated by the betting industry that this year’s Grand National should be put back a week to 17 April, five days after betting shops are due to re-open in England.
And it is not, on the face of it, a bad idea at all. Online betting is all very well, but when it comes to the National, walking out of a shop clutching a slip which could turn into hard cash later in the day is very much part of the fun. The boost in revenue for an industry that has been behind closed doors since last March could be immense. As Twiston-Davies put it in the Racing Post: “It can’t do any harm at all, can it?”
But the purdah which descended on every relevant executive when asked for comment on Tuesday – including those at the BHA, Aintree itself and Jockey Club Racecourses – feels telling. Because shifting the world’s most famous steeplechase from one weekend to the next is never going to be that simple, and could be, for various practical or contractual reasons, effectively impossible. So without wishing to be too Grinch-y about it, here are a few reasons why JCR is more likely to be preparing to let everyone down gently.
First up, everything in Monday’s “road map” is “at the earliest”. There is no guarantee that betting shops will re-open on 12 April, so the additional costs involved in staging a standalone National – and there would be plenty – would be pointless.
Next, if shops are open amid a public sense of an easing lockdown, will it be possible to stop hundreds, and quite possibly thousands, of people heading for Aintree to try to get a glimpse of the action? It took several miles of fencing and hundreds of security staff to successfully stage a Covid-safe Derby last July, in a commuter town in Surrey. Aintree, a vast open space in the middle of one of our biggest cities, would be a very different challenge.
Three, TV rights. About 30 different global broadcasters showed the race live in 2019 and this year they have paid for a race on 10 April. It’s entirely possible their contracts include a clause to cover a sudden switch, but who knows? Even the BHA doesn’t get to see the tracks’ media rights deals.
Finally – and this, for me, would be the biggest concern – can the bookmakers truly guarantee a Covid-safe environment for punters on what is always the biggest day of the year in betting shops, at a relatively early stage of the nation’s recovery?
If the rules are no more than two customers in a shop at a time, and most are going to spend several minutes reminding themselves what an each-way bet means, the potential for huge lines of punters stretching down high streets or, worse, shops that get over-run with frustrated customers, is clear.
So it might happen, and it might be a success. The National was re-staged two days later after the bomb scare in 1997, after all. But do not be too surprised, or disappointed, if it does not.
Cheltenham Festival stat of the day, by Paul Ferguson
Six of the 10 winners of the Marsh Novice Chase were Grade One-winning novice hurdlers, from just 15 runners. This will be music to the ears of fans of Envoi Allen, who seems to fit all the major trends, just as he did last year before winning the Ballymore. Another trend he fits this year is that five of the 10 winners had won at the Festival previously. He has done it twice.
The Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021, written by Paul Ferguson, is published on 26 February, priced £15.95. Talking Horses readers can obtain a £4 discount by using the promotion code ‘GDN21’ when placing an order.
Wednesday’s best bets
The three-mile novice handicap chase at Doncaster is one runner short to get three places each-way, but in most other respects it is an excellent race for betting purposes with seven horses currently priced up at 4-1 twice, 5-1, 6-1, 7-1, 15-2 and 8-1.
There is not much between them on recent form, in other words, but one horse that might take a big step forward is Minella Encore (2.20), who joined Richard Newland’s stable from Willie Mullins last summer. It has not been the smoothest of starts to his British career, as he scrambled home at short odds on his stable debut in September having traded at 150-1 in running and has been beaten on all three starts since. He has tended to fade in the closing stages after looking the likeliest winner, however, and this is his first start since a wind op, which could be just what he needs.
Tips by Greg Wood
Southwell
12.30 Smokey Malone 1.00 Owhatanight 1.30 Zapper Cass 2.05 Mulzim 2.40 The Resdev Way 3.15 Red Allure 3.50 Loose Chippings
Ludlow
1.20 Olympic Conqueror 1.55 Ben Brody 2.30 Frenchy Du Large 3.05 Lust For Glory 3.40 Volcano 4.15 Onchan 4.45 Robinshill
Doncaster
1.45 Get Your Own 2.20 Minella Encore (nap) 2.55 Patroclus 3.30 Ami Desbois 4.05 Big Bresil 4.35 Silsol 5.05 Le Grand Lion
Kempton Park
4.40 Elusive Treat 5.15 Album (nb) 5.45 Mutahamisa 6.15 Uzincso 6.45 Top Fox 7.15 Hint Of Stars 7.45 Paxos 8.15 Inaam
Big Bresil (4.05) is also worth an interest at around 4-1 after an excellent second on his handicap debut last time, while Album (5.15) and Red Allure (3.15) are the picks at Kempton and Southwell, respectively. The latter could offer some value at around 9-2 against odds-on San Juan, having taken well to Fibresand.
