Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
How interesting to read that Colin Tizzard has assumed responsibility for the aggressive tactics used on Cue Card on Saturday, when the popular veteran finished a tired third at Wetherby after pushing into the lead with most of a circuit left to run. The trainer and his son, Joe, “felt strongly it was the right thing to do and now we wish we hadn’t,” according to quotes in today’s Racing Post.
“We’ll leave it to Paddy [Brennan] next time. It’s better it happened first time out than in the Betfair Chase or King George,” Tizzard added.
The aggressive tactics did look odd but the problem with accepting them as a complete explanation for the outcome is that Cue Card was also at or near the front for the final circuit of last year’s race, which he won by almost four lengths. He was alongside Sam Winner at the first fence down the back straight and, though he then allowed the other horse to edge ahead until the home turn, he raced freely all the while.
That race was over at the third-last because Cue Card was in front and bounding along while the others were working hard (or fairly hard in the case of one of his rivals). What troubles me about this year’s race is that he looked in trouble by the home turn and was toiling so badly in the straight that it affected his jumping; he had to hurl himself over the second-last and took an extra stride at the last so that he went through the top of it.
By the run-in, he was so tired that he lost almost three lengths on the front two in the final half-furlong. Taken together with what Brennan told me, that the horse was never travelling as comfortably as in the past, I’d say there are some worrying signs, even allowing for unsuitable tactics and 10lb more on his back than last year.
On the other hand, there is the recent example of Silviniaco Conti, who flopped rather more impressively in the 2014 Charlie Hall, when he was beaten eight lengths into fifth as the even-money favourite. He had won the race by 11 lengths on his most recent visit to Wetherby two years before, so it looked like time to worry, but he won the Betfair Chase three weeks later, running a stone better than at Wetherby according to Racing Post ratings.
It’s not at all beyond Cue Card to bounce back at Haydock in similar style. Then again, Conti was eight when he won that Betfair. Cue Card is 10 and will be in decline at some stage in the next couple of years. The question is whether that decline has now begun.
I’m surprised about the drift for Tizzard’s On Demand (4.00) in the last at Hereford today but I shall take the 11-8 and be grateful. The mare is penalised for an 18-length success at Wincanton eight days ago, when a switch to front-running tactics seemed to help.
That was only her third start since joining Tizzard from Simon Hodgson and I would think there is plenty more to come.
In the cause of chucking one a bit further down the field, I’ll try Franco’s Secret (5.20) at 8-1 in the last at Kempton, where this five-year-old broke his maiden and has often run well. He’s down to his lowest mark since he last won, in February, and this is his second run back from a short break.
A change of jockey is being tried here, with Hollie Doyle up for the first time. The 5lb claimer is getting the hang of the game, as seven winners at 19% this month suggests.
