The two best races on the penultimate card of the season at Goodwood were both eight-runner events overnight offering three places to each-way backers, but both are now down to just seven starters with Billesdon Brook, the hot favourite, ruled out of the conditions event at 2.40 and Spark Plug missing from the feature race, the Foundation Stakes.
The loss of a place for each-way bets is an irritant in the latter race in particular, as What About Carlo (3.45) would otherwise have a clear chance to hit the frame at around 9-1.
Eve Johnson Houghton’s gelding would have a clear chance on the form of his Listed-race win on similar ground at Newbury earlier in the season and is behind only Promising Run, who is unraced since March, on ratings. His latest run in a Group Three at Newbury just four days ago was sub-par, but he is generally most consistent and should not be a 9-1 chance on the balance of his form.
Me Too Nagasaki (3.10) has been off for a while since finishing a close second behind Surrey Hope at Sandown in June, but that race worked out particularly well, with the winner going on to win a race at Salisbury in August in which the second, third and fourth horses home were all winners next time out. Jeremy Noseda’s colt should be suited by the step up in trip today and the trainer’s strike-rate with favourites coming off a break of 100 days or more since 2010 is a solid 29pc.
Notice (4.20) should go well on the same card after being giving a little too much to do last time out, while at Redcar, Quatrieme Ami (4.10) can confirm his return to form last time out in a handicap that is longer on numbers than quality. Desert Ruler (5.15) is a fair price to get off the mark for the year at the same meeting, while Pat’s Oscar (2.20) and Urtheoneiwant (4.00) should go well on the jumps card at Perth.
Wednesday’s tips
Goodwood 2.10 Setting Sail 2.40 Savaanah 3.10 Me Too Nagasaki (nb) 3.45 What About Carlo 4.20 Notice 4.50 Bahamian Sunrise 5.25 The Big Short
Redcar 2.00 Rock On Bertie 2.30 Milan Reef 3.00 Al Hajar 3.35 Valdolobo 4.10 Quatrieme Ami (nap) 4.40 Fort Bastion 5.15 Desert Ruler 5.45 Point Of Woods
Perth 2.20 Pat’s Oscar 2.50 Hope’s Wishes 3.25 Brutal 4.00 Urtheoneiwant 4.30 Ahead Of The Curve 5.05 Ballypoint
Kempton Park 5.40 Tony Soprano 6.10 Manthoor 6.40 Dazzle Gold 7.10 Maghaweer 7.40 Cape To Cuba 8.10 Batts Rock 8.40 Alfarris 9.10 Atlanta Belle
