Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
I’d like to start today by talking about The Cold List, one of several statistical features in the Racing Post which I find quite absorbing. I think there’s not nearly enough day-to-day public discussion about trainer form as a phenomenon and the consequence is that we haven’t developed an understanding of when it is and is not significant and what interpretations might be drawn from the data.
You can see why The Cold List would be unpopular with trainers and I believe that one has described it as “an abomination” but I’m grateful for the fact that the numbers are made available every day, even as I remind myself not to read too much into them. To take a couple of current and high-profile examples, Mark Johnston has had 78 runners over the past 26 days without a winner, while Colin Tizzard’s dry spell extends to 61 runners over 200 days.
For the avoidance of doubt, both are excellent trainers who have enjoyed success at the highest level. The surest thing in the world is that they will both have another winner at some point, taking them off The List. (It will probably happen today, since I’ve drawn attention to the subject).
If The List were never available, you would sometimes back horses from stables on such a bad run and never know it. Perhaps you’re the kind of gambler who wouldn’t care about that but personally I’d be gutted to learn, after placing a bet, that the yard had run dozens of horses without recent success.
More and more things are measured these days and our stock of knowledge increases thereby. No sensible person imagines that a trainer’s mere presence on The Cold List makes them a bad trainer. It is something that happens to most trainers at some point. The information should not be obscured from public view. As punters, we should be looking at these numbers and discussing them, trying to figure out what they mean.
There are an awful lot of reasons why a trainer might be on The List at any one time. The more attention we pay and the more we discuss it, the better we will get at interpreting it. In the absence of a public discussion, it might be a mistake to assume that the data will always be available.
Sue Smith is in danger of edging onto the list after 22 losers over 27 days but I have decided not to worry about that in the context of her runners at Sedgefield today. Few of her recent runners have been fancied and one of those lost out by just a nose at Kelso. Her form has generally picked up at about this time of year in recent seasons, just as the jumps season starts in earnest.
So I give a chance to her 8-1 shot Lackamon (3.00) in the Durham National. He won this race when it was held in April last year, his only previous visit to this specialist’s track, and is only 5lb higher now, with a recent hurdles run likely to have helped his fitness.
When last seen over fences, he was in contention for a long way in the Scottish National. He is partnered by the useful claimer Daragh Bourke, who has a 22% strike-rate over fences.
On the all-weather, I find 20-1 about George Guru (3.50) hard to resist, much as I am reluctant to get involved at Lingfield. He is, after all, just 2lb higher than when winning a more valuable race round here in March.
He’s lost his form since then but has done most of his running on turf , on which his strike-rate is much weaker than when he gets a chance on Polytrack. This is competitive and you always need luck at Lingfield but he’s overpriced.
Tipping competition, day four
Our winners so far:
Monday
Trendsetter 13-2
Omid 13-2
Always Right 11-2
Tuesday
Trillerin Minella 7-1
Handiwork 9-2
Vaguely Spanish 7-1
Wednesday
Boherna Lady 10-1
Captain Knock 20-1
Card High 9-1
And our leader is:
Mai11 +18.50
... who has form for finding the big-priced winners and was the only one to dig out Captain Knock. JimmyDeuce (+16.50) was the only one to bag Boherna Lady.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 2.50 Lingfield, 3.00 Sedgefield, 3.40 Stratford.
This week’s prize is This week’s prize is a copy of One Jump Ahead 2014, the annual preview book by Mark Howard which has built up such a good reputation over the years. In addition to the usual detail on unexposed horses worth following, this year’s edition includes an exclusive interview with Rich Ricci, who looks like becoming a dominant owner in jump racing. If you don’t win, you can buy a copy here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -9.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
Click here for all the day’s racecards, form, stats and results.
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
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