Monday’s best bets, by Greg Wood
Cold weather is expected to wreak havoc with the National Hunt programme over the next few days, but both of Monday’s cards over jumps have survived morning inspections and will go ahead as planned. Wrap up warm if you are going to either Plumpton or Ayr, though – the clerk of the course reported that it was 1C at the Scottish track at 9.30am and will not get any higher than 5C later on.
Kempton’s card on Saturday marked the start of pre-Festival purdah, with few if any jumps horses of any quality likely to be setting foot beyond the boundary of their stable this side of 13 March. But it is a rare day that does not throw up at least a couple of runners at interesting prices, and One For Harry (4.20) is a case in point up at Ayr.
Nicky Richards’s runner is has reached the veteran stage at the age of 10, but he was a winner off 135 at Haydock in December and was only three lengths behind the winner over this course in early January. Bulls Head is the obvious danger, but may not have as much in hand of One For Harry as the odds suggest.
On the all-weather Flat cards, Atletico (8.15) looks like the best bet of the day at around 7-4 at Wolverhampton. Reflektor should set a fair pace for Roger Varian’s runner to chase, and while he has finished second twice since winning at Newcastle in November, he looked unlucky last time out when he was left with plenty of ground to make up in the last quarter-mile.
Mouchee (4.00) was just a half-length behind Father Ailbe last time out and the winner there ran well to finish second next time up. Ertidaad (2.25) is fairly reliable in low-grade company and should be good enough to win on the same card, while Invicta Lake (4.05) goes well at Plumpton and looks overpriced as the outsider of four.
By Chris Cook
Dr Richard Newland 38% (8)
Peter Bowen 33% (12)
Paul Nicholls 29% (38)
Sue Smith 28% (18)
Alan King 24% (33)
Warren Greatrex 24% (17)
Ruth Jefferson 22% (9)
Dan Skelton 21% (43)
Colin Tizzard 19% (37)
Oliver Sherwood 19% (16)
Nicky Henderson 17% (29)
Brian Ellison 17% (18)
Tim Vaughan 16% (19)
Nick Williams 15% (13)
Fergal O’Brien 14% (14)
David Pipe 13% (23)
Kim Bailey 13% (16)
Ben Pauling 13% (15)
Donald McCain 11% (27)
Kerry Lee 11% (9)
Gary Moore 10% (42)
Venetia Williams 10% (31)
Philip Hobbs 10% (21)
Nicky Richards 10% (10)
Harry Fry 9% (11)
Nigel Twiston-Davies 7% (30)
Neil Mulholland 7% (29)
Emma Lavelle 7% (14)
Ian Williams 5% (22)
Jonjo O’Neill 5% (19)
Lucinda Russell 5% (19)
Evan Williams 4% (26)
Tom George 0% (18)
Charlie Longsdon 0% (11)
Rebecca Curtis 0% (2)
Dr Newland maintained his excellent figure from last week, which is now good enough for the top spot as others have fallen away. But it wasn’t all plain sailing for the good doctor, who saw his West Of The Edge outstayed by Baywing in the Eider and had to rule his Abolitionist out of the Grand National.
It’s interesting to see Peter Bowen back in form with spring on the horizon (honestly, it’s out there somewhere). Perhaps more significantly, Paul Nicholls is back up at the right end of our table after eight winners over the weekend and he’s also back at the top of a slightly more important table, prize money won by trainers this season.
For all that he lacks the firepower of a decade ago, Nicholls has his horses where he wants them a fortnight before the Cheltenham Festival. The same is probably also true of Nicky Henderson, though it’s interesting to see him sliding down our table after being a fixture near the top since November. It’s not a good time of year to be judging his stable’s form, knowing that we’re looking at the B team while the A-listers are prepared for bigger targets on the horizon.
A revival in the fortunes of Philip Hobbs and Jonjo O’Neill is still awaited. Tom George was firing in the winners up to Christmas but is on 6% for February.
Each Monday through the core jumps season, we’re monitoring the relative success of 35 major jumps stables. The percentage figure is their win strike-rate for the last fortnight, while their total number of runners in that time is in brackets.
Lingfield 1.55 Angelina D’Or 2.25 Ertidaad 2.55 Lady Noorah 3.30 Bernie’s Boy 4.00 Mouchee (nb) 4.35 Clergyman
Plumpton 2.00 Dream Baie 2.30 Holbrook Park 3.00 Sheelbewhatsheelbe 3.35 Not Never 4.05 Invicta Lake 4.40 Soulsaver 5.15 Hawthorn Cottage
Ayr 2.15 Bialco 2.45 Present Flight 3.15 Skipthescales 3.50 Looksnowtlikebrian 4.20 One For Harry 4.55 Our Lucas 5.30 Black Pirate
Wolverhampton 5.45 Inuk 6.15 Poetic Imagination 6.45 Loyal Promise 7.15
Paddy A 7.45 Ice Canyon 8.15 Atletico (nap)
8.45 Something Lucky
