Today’s best bets
Oh, what a pity. Gleneagles has not been declared at the final entry stage for Wednesday’s Sussex Stakes, ending the possibility of a first clash with the mighty French runner Solow. Aidan O’Brien is quoted on the Racing Post site as saying: “We were hoping for good, fast ground for Gleneagles. They’ve had rain at Goodwood and he’s not going to have his ground, so we decided against running him. We’ll decide over the next week or so where he might go next.”
That’s disappointing to hear. It’s only good to soft at Goodwood now, with conditions likely to dry out a little between now and race-time on Wednesday. There was some give in the ground when Gleneagles won the Irish 2,000 Guineas. The conclusion we must draw is that they didn’t fancy their chances against Solow except on a fast surface.
This is the first running of the Sussex Stakes since sponsorship from Qatar injected a huge amount of extra prize money, making it a £1m race. To me, the absence of Gleneagles shows the limits of what you can do with prize money on the Flat. When connections of a future stallion fear the possibility of defeat, even £1m on offer is not enough to lure them to the track.
Goodwood might dry out in time for tomorrow’s racing but Newton Abbot is likely to offer a testing surface for this afternoon’s action. I like the Newton clerk’s description of recent weather, as reported on the BHA site: “43mm rain Friday. Dry pleasant Saturday. 13mm Sunday.” Possibly the “dry, pleasant Saturday” may not be terribly relevant in view of what came before and after!
I hoped for better than 5-2 about Top Chief (3.15) in the staying handicap chase but it will do. He ran into a Dr Newland improver on his debut for Anthony Honeyball at Uttoxeter a fortnight ago but the result is that he’s only 3lb higher here. He has the help of Ciaran Gethings, who is good value for his 7lb claim, and should be well to the fore, helping to force a gallop that will make things difficult for these rivals.
Windsor bids its farewells tonight to Richard Hughes, who has done so well there in recent years. Hughes rides the first two favourites but Fast And Hot is a Richard Hannon newcomer in the second race and juveniles from that yard quite often need a run.
At each-way odds of 25-1, I’m interested in Wiley Post (6.30), the Hannon second-string, who achieved very little on his Newbury debut three weeks ago, albeit behind a decent winner. He possibly had a bad draw and he was certainly away from where the race developed.
Here, he gets soft ground on which his sire’s progeny often do well and he looks overpriced, given the improvement that Hannon horses can make for a first outing.
Tipping competition - a new week starts tomorrow
Congratulations to Dean055, who won last week’s competition on a final score of +21.50, despite a winnerless Friday. Thesme (16-1) would have made a big difference but no one tipped Nigel Tinkler’s filly for the York race that closed last week.
It’s Glorious Goodwood week and, as has become our custom, we’ll be offering two prizes: one for the tipster that does best and one for the tipster that does worst. It’s a way of recognising what a tricky week this is for punters and how things can go badly wrong for any of us.
We’ll include four races each day at Goodwood, from Tuesday to Friday. The best tipster, as usual, will be whoever gets the best notional return to level stakes on each selection. The winning worst tipster will be drawn from those of you who pick a loser in all 16 of our chosen races, with the prize going to whichever of you had the shortest average SP among your selections.
If you feel like getting some homework done, we will start tomorrow with these races: 3.10 Goodwood, 3.45 Goodwood, 4.20 Goodwood, 5.30 Goodwood. You don’t have to post your tips until tomorrow but if you post them today, I’ll copy them on to tomorrow’s Talking Horses.
You don’t have to declare which prize you’re trying to win. If you try to pick winners tomorrow but come up with four losers, you’ll have to decide whether you want to keep pursuing the best tipster prize or if it might be better to go all out for losers from that point. Remember: just one winner disqualifies you from the worst tipster prize.
If I remember rightly, we’ve had one entrant ‘declare’ for the worst tipster prize, only to hit three winners that day. You’ll save face if you keep your intentions to yourself, but it will certainly be more entertaining if you let us know in advance …
Good luck!
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
