Monday’s best bets, by Chris Cook
One interesting feature of the jump racing over the weekend was the success enjoyed by Nicky Henderson. He won with two of the three runners he sent to Chepstow’s two-day card and, while Altior was certainly fancied for his novice hurdle, Cocktails At Dawn was a 6-1 shot for the novice chase in which he made all and won by three lengths.
Those two were certainly ready to go and it will be interesting to see if Henderson builds on that good beginning over the next few weeks. He only had 15 winners over fences in the whole of last season and had no more than one a month from September to February, so what Cocktails At Dawn did was especially encouraging.
Salisbury’s end-of-term card has a tricky look but I’m interested in a couple of 9-2 shots at the end of the action. Rosie Royale (4.50) has really come to herself at the end of her three-year-old season and looked perfectly at home on the sort of soft ground she’ll meet today when scoring at Sandown last time. I have doubts about two of her main market rivals, as Hit List comes from a yard that seems to have lost form as the season ends, while Pink Ribbon’s recent wins have been on the all-weather and he’s 0/14 on turf.
Mark Hopkins (5.20) has a stiff opening mark for the staying handicap but this three-year-old looked scopey enough to keep improving when last seen winning a maiden in July. His trainer, David Elsworth, is based in Newmarket but used to be near Salisbury and it is interesting that he still has an excellent strike rate there, with nine winners from 35 runners (26%) over the past five seasons.
Earlier, I shall take a fling at the jackpot with Aru Cha Cha (3.50), a 33-1 shot in a seven-furlong handicap. This four-year-old has done nothing in four starts for Roger Ingram and perhaps the ability has gone but he’ll be pretty dangerous off a mark of 49 if there’s still some spark in the furnace.
He’s a stone and a half below the rating from which he was placed at Dundalk last summer, beaten by only a length, and, while he’s a maiden after 23 runs, there are a few bits of form on his record that would justify a much higher rating than the one he has now.
He has not had many chances on softish turf but his breeding suggests it should help. I note that Sam Hitchcott is replaced in the saddle on Monday by the trainer’s daughter, Rhiain, a 7lb claimer who took ages to get her first winner but is now 4/23 since the start of August.
Tipping competition – a new week
Congratulations to TL127, who held on to win last week’s competition on a final score of +12.25, ending the week with a run of nine losers. No one got closer than JahLion (+7).
This week’s prize is a copy of the newly published Chasers & Hurdlers annual from Timeform, a hefty tome that is treasured by fans of the winter game and, at £75, is one of the most valuable prizes we ever offer on here. This year’s volume contains an appreciation of Tony McCoy’s career as well as reflections on SP over-round for the Grand National (“scandalous” says Timeform) and the length of time the BHA takes over corruption cases. If you don’t win this week, you can buy a copy here or read a sample here.
To kick things off, we’d like your selections, please, for these races: 4.00 Windsor, 4.20 Salisbury, 4.30 Windsor.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
