Today’s best bets
Thanks to Richard Hughes for sparing the time to talk to me the other morning in Lambourn. One little thing he said that I couldn’t use, having run out of space in the paper, concerned a runner he has at Wolverhampton today, Quality Song (3.05).
The context was, he was praising Shane Kelly for being the kind of jockey who would speak frankly if he had got beaten when he felt he should have won. “Shane came to me apologising the other day on Quality Song but I could see what happened in front of him. Ideally, we wanted to sit second or third but he has a high head carriage and most horses with a high head carriage jump slow. And he was drawn two. So by the time he got to the first bend, there was three horses dropped in in front of him. Now, I know you can’t jump over them, so you have to sit and suffer. Just, that’s racing.”
Quality Song had won on his previous start, just his second run in handicaps, when stepped up in trip to a mile and a half. Under Kelly, he ran on well and was beaten just a head, both runs at Wolverhampton.
He returns there today and steps up another two furlongs. The handicapper has added another 3lb and this is a pretty warm race for the grade but this looks like another winner from the on-fire Hughes stable. If only the bookmakers were offering something more generous than 11-8.
Earlier, Simon Walker gets another chance to show that he’s the best of the amateurs aboard Captain Felix (2.00). Gay Kelleway’s three-year-old ran above his rating to land a Lingfield claimer last month and I’m not sure he and Jane Elliott were seeing things the same way at Kempton last time. This return to a longer trip should help, as should the fact that this is distinctly less competitive.
At Plumpton, I’m prepared to take a flier on Dun Bay Creek (1.20). He’s a 20-1 shot because he achieved nothing in two bumper runs for Lucinda Russell last season but his pedigree doesn’t suggest bumpers in any case and Russell’s record in bumpers for the whole of that season was 1/22.
He is now with the red-hot Alan King yard that has a stonking 40% strike-rate at Plumpton (22/55). Clearly he will have to have taken a big step forward to get involved here but that is a distinct possibility, with time, hurdles and extra distance to help as well as the change of scenery. It doesn’t look a strong race, though Mckenzie’s Friend has already won at the track.
At Ffos Las, Thedrinkymeister (2.10) looks overpriced at 4-1, having stuck on doggedly into fifth on his chasing debut in one of the hotter novice handicap chases of the season, won by Spookydooky. This is much less tough and the extra two furlongs will help, as will deeper going. Heavy going at this Welsh track is a specialist’s business and he won here in such conditions as a hurdler.
Royal Palladium is feared but he has had two hard races already this term and it seemed to be taking a toll the last time. African Gold could show some of his old form now that the Twiston-Davies yard are winning some races and a first-time visor makes him interesting at least but it could also be an act of desperation.
Tipping competition - a new week
Congratulations to Ormrod76, who found Aachen (12-1) on Friday to vault over a load of other tipsters and land last week’s competition on a final score of +12.75, 50p ahead of Bigboozer.This week’s prize, generously offered by William Hill, is a £25 bet on the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day, which they sponsor.To kick things off, we’d like your selections, please, for these races: 2.10 Ffos Las, 2.55 Plumpton, 5.10 Wolverhampton.As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers.In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day. For terms and conditions click here. Good luck!
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
