Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Now the Derby trials are over, what do you do if you’re Aidan O’Brien, who has lots of good horses in his yard but has yet to see a convincing Derby-type performance from any of them? You’ve won the last three Derbys, the pressure is on to get another but you’ve got nothing in the betting at shorter than 10-1 … who do you run?
Hans Holbein has to take his chance because he’s not done much wrong and he did actually manage to win his trial, beating a horse who then won another trial. Kilimanjaro also won his trial, slightly unexpectedly, so run him too, although he looks a big, raw work in progress - a future chaser, as someone joked in the Curragh press room yesterday.
Do you run Gleneagles? He’s a crack miler who’d have a great chance of a third Group One of the year if he skipped Epsom in favour of Royal Ascot. At a mile and a half, he may look a non-stayer, like his sister did last year, and you could ruin the rest of his season by sticking him in the wrong race. But he’s the classiest colt in your yard, so how much does the Derby matter to you?
Do you stick a filly in the race? Unconventional though it would be, Found could have the class to get involved and perhaps a test of stamina is what she wants after two defeats over shorter this year. Of course, you can’t make as much money at stud out of a female Derby winner as you could out of a male, so it’s going to be annoying if she beats Hans Holbein by a head.
Then again, if she beats someone else’s colt, you’ve successfully dented the commercial value of a horse who will be a stallion for some rival operation in the future. It’s a mean-spirited thought and perhaps I’m the only one thinking it. But breeding racehorses is big business and such considerations are relevant, even if we’re too polite to discuss them in public.
Anyway, if I’m Aidan O’Brien, I’d think that Giovanni Canaletto might be my best chance, despite that narrow defeat on Sunday. It wasn’t a bad prep-run in difficult circumstances and, although he’s got less than a fortnight before the big day, I’d say he could do better again the next time. It’s an open year. Give him a whirl.
One way or another, O’Brien knows his Derby chances remain alive. This is the man who’s had several horses go close at huge odds, including The Great Gatsby (beaten a length at 20-1 in 2003) and At First Sight (100-1 runner-up in 2010). Neither of them were good enough to win a single race after their Derby efforts, so it’s not as if you always have to be a world-beater to do well in the Classic.
This might also be said of the Zetland Gold Cup, today’s feature race at Redcar. Support for Libran (3.55) has forced his price from 7-2 to 11-4 in the time since I started typing but that will still do for me. From the Alan Swinbank yard that is hot to the touch just now (six wins from 19 runs in the past fortnight, having his best month for winners since last May), Libran is up another 9lb since his win over a big field at York 12 days ago.
That looks perfectly fair and this is more winnable than the Old Newton Cup or the Duke of Edinburgh, which were mooted as targets the last time he was in the winner’s enclosure.
I’m surprised to get 9-2 about Crakehall Lad (5.35) in the closer after his fine effort at Catterick on Saturday, when he was beaten just half a length. He won twice at this track in the autumn off marks of 61 and 65 and is back down to 61 now.
At Leicester, Charlie Croker (3.50) is a promising sprinter who may be able to go in again at 7-2 after a strong-finishing success at Doncaster on the first run of his three-year-old season. I don’t think another 4lb will make any odds to him, although this is a stronger race and I’m relying on a fast finisher in a double-figure field, which has been known to go wrong before.
Pink Lips (5.25) is too big at 6-1 in the last race there, having won off this sort of mark at her peak with John Jenkins a couple of years ago. This is only her fourth run since joining Neil Mulholland and I expect her recent steady improvement to continue.
This step up in distance seemed to help her last time and, in this apprentice contest, she will be ridden by Chris Meehan, who got off the mark for the year with an enterprising ride at Bath the other day.
If it’s a bank holiday, it must be Cartmel, and I wonder if Tullamore Dew (4.40) might have one last hurrah in him at the age of 13, four years after his most recent success. He’s on the lowest mark he’s ever had, a stone and a half lower than when he was third in the Festival one time, or when he was beaten a head at Ascot in 2012.
At some point since mid-December, he joined Micky Hammond, who has got his horses running well now. Good to soft going is just about ideal. I’m not sure this track is going to suit but 13-2 is fair, although 10-1 was available last night.
Tipping competition - a new week starts tomorrow
Congratulations to GForce1, who won last week’s competition on a final score of +15.50 despite a winnerless Friday, holding off the late surge of PHILYERBOOTS (+12).
As this is a bank holiday, we will postpone the start of our new week’s tipping competition until tomorrow. Do please join us then!
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