Monday’s best bets, by Greg Wood
Plumpton has survived its early inspection so there is a full programme in Britain this afternoon, but with just 15 days left until the Cheltenham Festival, heavy ground at the Sussex track is unlikely to produce much of a spike in betting turnover.
It could be just what Paddy The Oscar (3.40) needs to follow up last week’s 16-length success at Lingfield, however. That victory came as a complete surprise following two disappointing runs on his only previous starts this season, but showed that Grace Harris’s 12-year-old is still capable of fair form when the conditions are in his favour. A change in Paddy The Oscar’s tack was reported to have been behind his sudden return to the winner’s enclosure at 33-1 and a 7lb penalty is unlikely to stop him today under conditions that will suit him more than his main opponents.
The most valuable race of the day is at Wolverhampton, where just five go to post to chase a £12,000 first price in a Class 2 fillies’ handicap over nine-and-a-half furlongs. Dream Child (5.00) is going to be difficult to beat here as she attempts to overcome a reasonable 5lb rise for her latest success at the track, her fourth in as many starts at Wolverhampton.
Den Maschine (4.30) had a good record at the same course when the Polytrack was down and ran well on the Tapeta last time out too. He is the oldest horse in today’s field by four years and upwards, but had a long spell on the sidelines before returning to action last month and has something in hand on his best previous form as he attempts to defy a 5lb rise in the weights.
At Ayr, Bobs Lady Tamure (4.20) can follow up her latest success in a mares’ race at Wetherby. Today’s opposition is stronger, but she showed enough there to suggest that a little more progress is not beyond her.
Cheltenham Festival stat of the day
by Paul Jones, author of the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide published by Weatherbys
Saturday’s Adonis Hurdle, won in impressive style by Beltor, has been the best British guide to the Triumph Hurdle by a country mile, with five of its last 15 winners going on to double up at Cheltenham. That record reads even better when we consider that the last two Adonis winners (Irish Saint and Activial) bypassed the Triumph for Aintree, though their efforts at Liverpool suggest they would have come up short. But surely Binocular would have been a sixth Adonis winner to double in the Triumph had connections not taken the surprising decision to re-route him to the Supreme (in which he was second to the same owner’s Captain Cee Bee), given how easily he disposed of the Triumph winner, Celestial Halo, at Aintree the following month. Beltor cruised to a facile victory despite taking a keen hold and Plan A remains the Triumph if he comes out of the race well, but his trainer is mindful that Aintree gives him extra time from which to recover, so maybe he is more interesting when the ‘non runner no bet’ concession comes into force for Cheltenham.
The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide is published on February 20th and available via www.weatherbysshop.co.uk or 01933 304776
Tipping competition - a new week
Congratulations to Mai11, who held on to win last week’s competition on a final score of +19.50, despite a winnerless Friday. Moidadem had a perfect Friday but left himself just too much ground to make up.
This week’s prize is a copy of the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide, by Paul Jones. The famous guide to winner-finding at those four days in March is now in its 16th year and more prized than ever. If you don’t win, you can buy a copy here
To kick things off, we’d like your selections, please, for these races: 4.10 Plumpton, 4.20 Ayr, 4.50 Ayr.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
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