Friday’s best bets
Happy Samcro day! Whether you’re one of his many fans or you remain a sceptic, day four at the Punchestown festival is all about one horse and even the uncommitted are now forced to choose a side.
Samcro steps out of novice company for Friday’s Betdaq-sponsored Champion Hurdle in a plan that was surely conceived as part of Gordon Elliott’s attempt to win the trainer’s title, which now seems to have failed. Even if Samcro wins, Elliott will have a mountain to climb and Willie Mullins is almost assured of good place prize money from the race, in which he has five of the eight runners.
That last detail could be a big factor and one of Jack Kennedy’s key responsibilities will be picking a path through the Mullins runners aboard the classy chestnut, who is usually waited with behind the leaders or in midfield. The jockey must avoid the nightmare scenario of being trapped behind a tiring leader; when there are sturdy types like Min in the field, a novice hurdler can’t just force his way out of a hole.
Granted a clear run, is Samcro good enough? His supporters can point to the fact that the second and third from his Cheltenham win have both since won Grade Ones. But he still has something to prove in this company and that is not accounted for in his odds of 10-11, which ask us to be fans rather than dispassionate judges.
I’d far rather take 3-1 about Melon (5.30), who put up a career best effort to be second in the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last month, a race in which he led the classy Buveur D’Air halfway up the run-in and was beaten only a neck. I don’t think that was a fluke, given that he halved in price to 7-1 on the day.
Getting him to settle and to jump his hurdles cleanly has been a big part of the battle with him but that last run was encouraging on both fronts and he still has scope for progress. He’d probably have won at Punchestown last year, but for getting caught in a pace battle.
While Mullins has had plenty of big-name losers this week, a fair number of his better horses have shown their very best form and the same can’t quite be said for Elliott. All of which makes Melon look tasty at 3-1, though I’m always aware that great-value losers are just as expensive as any other kind of loser.
Tracking the Sandown weather from afar, I fear the London track hasn’t had quite as much rain as was forecast but the ground is nearly always a test for the Flat horses that contest this fixture. That gives What About Carlo (2.25) a fine chance in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes, just six days after he was third to Defoe at Newbury.
On a sound surface, this veteran couldn’t hope to outpace some of those he meets on Friday but he’ll be very comfortable on the prevailing ground and won a handicap on this card four years ago. It was also soft when he got his Listed win at Newbury last summer.
Fabricate has something to prove on a soft surface. Crystal Ocean, a strong favourite, comes from a yard making a slow start to the season and is surely going to be better for the run, over a trip which looks on the sharp side for him. At 8-1, What About Carlo is the way to go.
At Doncaster, 16-1 looks a fair each-way price about Jessinamillion (2.15), from the James Bethell yard that has had a couple of handicappers run well in recent days. He went well here on similar ground last summer and may be suited by an extra furlong now. A few of his races last year suggested he was on a beatable mark when things fall right.
Perth 1.30 Floral Bouquet 2.05 Thorpe 2.40 Rons Dream 3.15 Our Lucas 3.45 Kings Eclipse 4.15 Mill Forge 4.45 Cultram Abbey 5.15 Imperial Acolyte
Doncaster 1.40 Knightly Spirit 2.15 Jessinamillion (nb) 2.50 Nibras Again 3.25 Azpeitia 3.55 Character Witness 4.25 Major Pusey 5.00 Angel Gabrial 5.35 Edge Of The World
Sandown 1.50 Kings Shield 2.25 What About Carlo (nap) 3.00 Chilean 3.35 Addeybb 4.05 Diamond Dougal 4.35 Highgarden 5.05 Glencadam Master
Towcester 4.40 Totterdown 5.10 Indian Hawk 5.40 Bertie Barnes 6.15 Bennys Girl 6.50 After Aspen 7.20 Bredon Hill Lad 7.55 Yellow Dockets
Chepstow 4.50 Indian Hercules 5.20 Hollywood Ken 5.50 Dauphine Ereine 6.25 Mortens Leam 7.00 Tinkers Hill Tommy 7.35 Heresmynumber 8.05 Lad Of Luck
Tips by Chris Cook.
