The idea that a colt needs a trial before the 2,000 Guineas has been largely debunked by a long line of first-time-up winners in recent seasons, and racecourse gallops seem to be the starting point of choice for an increasing number of trainers these days.
Quite why Newmarket seems so ready and willing to devalue its trials by allowing Classic contenders onto the course a few hours earlier is beyond me. But that’s up to them, and thankfully for the Craven Stakes, John Gosden does seem to feel that Roaring Lion will benefit from a proper run over the Guineas course and distance this afternoon, 16 days before he does it again in the Classic.
Roaring Lion is 6-1 third-favourite to win the 2,000 Guineas and there is nothing in today’s seven-strong field that can match the form of his run in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last year. Saxon Warrior, who is a 5-1 chance for the Guineas, was the eventual winner at Town Moor and gave Aidan O’Brien a new record for Group or Grade One wins in a season as he did so. Roaring Lion, though, made a huge move mid-race and surged into the lead, before hanging badly as Saxon Warrior ran on to win.
That form makes Roaring Lion an obvious, odds-on favourite for today’s race and he is unlikely to be short of work with the Guineas so close at hand. At the prices, though, it might be worth siding with the race-fit Masar (3.35) to spring a surprise and extend Charlie Appleby’s outstanding start to the season.
Masar has a few pounds to find with Roaring Lion on the bare ratings and has not registered a win in any of his last three starts. Scratch the surface, though, and there might still be a top-class colt trying to get out.. Masar was less than a length-and-a-half behind the winner in the Lagardere on Arc day, would have given Mendelssohn something to think about at the Breeders’ Cup had he not endured miserable luck in running, and then hated the dirt at Meydan last time.
Appleby said after winning the Nell Gwyn Stakes here on Wednesday that Glorious Journey, his other runner in today’s race, has done very well over the winter, but also stated very plainly that Masar is at peak fitness ahead of today’s race. He might just catch Roaring Lion cold if so, and 5-1 looks like a very fair price in what could boil down to a match. Bertog (5.55) is weak in the market this morning ahead of his return to action in the concluding handicap, which is a concern, but his close third in a decent time in a nursery here last autumn would give him a leading chance if he is fit enough to do himself justice.
Le Brivido (3.00), unraced since winning the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last season, makes a welcome return to action in the Abernant Stakes and Andre Fabre’s 31pc strike-rate on the Rowley Mile over the last 15 years (10 wins from 32 starts) suggests 9-4 is a price worth taking.
The Bay Birch (2.40) and The Organist (3.15) are solid favourites on the jumps card at Cheltenham while Summerghand (4.00) is worth a second look at around 10-1 in a competitive sprint handicap at Ripon.
Newmarket 1.50 Captain Jameson 2.25 Karaginsky 3.00 Le Brivido 3.35 Masar (nap) 4.10 Hula Girl 4.45 Argentello 5.20 Occupy 5.55 Bertog (nb)
Cheltenham 2.05 Banjo Girl 2.40 The Bay Birch 3.15 The Organist 3.50 Jennys Surprise 4.25 Cubswin 5.00 Sister Sibyl 5.35 Queen’s Magic
Ripon 2.15 Light My Fire 2.50 She’s Different 3.25 Biddy Brady 4.00 Summerghand 4.35 Swift Emperor 5.10 Book Of Dreams 5.45 One Second 6.15 Something Lucky
Newcastle 5.40 Dance Rock 6.10 Trooper’s Gold 6.40 Elysee Star 7.10 Murqaab 7.40 Odds On Oli 8.15 Gabrial the Saint 8.45 Emaraaty 9.15 Jai Hanuman
