The first point to remember when attempting to sift the Grand National winner from 40 possibilities is that it has never been about finding the best horse in the race. William Lynn, its founder, was an Aintree landlord who wanted to attract customers to his hotel, and created a steeplechase run over local fields and obstacles that guaranteed a decent payout for anyone who could find the winner.
Nearly two centuries after Lottery – the 5-1 favourite – became the first horse to win, the National is more competitive than ever and luck, good and bad, always has a huge hand in the outcome. Minella Times and Any Second Now plotted similar routes through last year’s race until the 12th, where a faller brought Any Second Now to a standstill. Had Double Shuffle fallen in front of Minella Times instead, we would still be waiting for a first National victory by a female jockey.
Rachael Blackmore’s instincts and skill also played a major part, and her remarkable ability to find the smoothest path to the line, even amid the bedlam of a Grand National, will be even more important on Saturday as she looks for a repeat success on Minella Times from a 15lb higher mark.
The form of last year’s race, however, strongly suggests that Any Second Now is a much likelier winner, and with any luck in running, it is hard to see him finishing outside the top four. The form of his narrow defeat of Escaria Ten last time also looks rock-solid, and Gordon Elliott’s gelding is another prime candidate for the frame, along with Enjoy D’Allen. But Ted Walsh’s gelding is also up in the weights, and this is no longer a race in which previous experience of the obstacles is a significant advantage. The last five horses to win the National were seeing the famous fences for the first time, and the biggest threat to Any Second Now is likely to come from a younger, progressive opponent with less weight to carry.
Aintree 1.45 Remastered 2.25 Good Risk At All (nb) 3.00 Edwardstone 3.35 Thyme Hill 4.15 Killer Kane 5.15 Longhouse Poet (nap) 6.20 Ernest Gray
Newcastle 12.30 Bird On The Wire 1.00 Git Maker 1.37 Sir Apollo 2.15 Lough Salt 2.50 Byzantine Empire 3.25 The King Of May 4.00 Get With It 4.40 Kings Creek
Thirsk 12.55 Paddy Brunty 1.30 Shallow Hal 2.05 True Mason 2.40 Symbolize 3.15 King Of Jungle 3.50 Juan De Montalban 4.30 Broadspear 5.00 Sfumato
Bangor 1.55 Vintage Fizz 2.33 Ecume Atlantique 3.08 Daranova 3.43 Dawn Raider 4.22 Tigerbythetail 4.52 Spirit Of Regulus
Wolverhampton 4.57 Pons Aelius 5.30 Voltaic 6.00 Lucia Joy 6.30 The Grand Visir 7.00 Pilot Wings 7.30 Odd Socks Havana 8.00 Study The Stars 8.30 The Resdev Way
No horse in this year’s field fits that description quite like Longhouse Poet (nap 5.15), whose campaign has been built around Saturday’s race by a trainer who knows exactly what is required.
Martin Brassil won the 2006 National with his first runner, Numbersixvalverde, and having saddled the same horse to finish sixth a year later, he did not return to Aintree until 2014, when Double Seven, the joint-favourite, finished third. Longhouse Poet was a deeply impressive winner of the Thyestes Chase in January, a race that Numbersixvalverde won in the season before his National success, and has been kept fresh since a run over hurdles in February. At around 16-1 with most bookmakers, he is an excellent bet to give Brassil a second victory in the world’s greatest steeplechase.
Aintree 2.25 Several of these have experience at Grade One level while Good Risk At All is making the step up from handicaps, but the form of his easy win at Ascot in February is backed up by a strong time and early odds of around 7-1 underestimate his chance.
Aintree 3.00 Edwardstone is as tough and reliable as they come and was a comfortable winner of the Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham last month. He is a worthy odds-on shot to complete a six-timer with his third Grade One success of the campaign.
Aintree 3.35 Flooring Porter showed at Cheltenham last month that he is very difficult to beat if he gets a soft lead, but Tom O’Brien, who chased him home on Thyme Hill, will be more alive than ever to the danger and last year’s winner could be a value bet at around 3-1 to reverse the Festival form.
Aintree 4.15 A hot handicap chase to tee up the National. Plenty are in with a shout but at the likely odds, Killer Kane could be a decent each-way option to follow-up his win in a Listed handicap at Sandown Park last time.
