Starting tomorrow: our Cheltenham Festival tipping competitions!
From Tuesday to Friday, it’s that Cheltenham Festival you may have heard of. As usual, we’ll be running tipping competitions. Whoever does best on each day will win a £50 bet from 32Red, who have kindly agreed to stump up the prizes. That gives you four shots at winning something, although, of course, the endless glory will be worth rather more to you than the prize itself.
You’ll have to provide one tip for each race. The winner will be the person whose tips return the best profit that day to a notional stake of £1 to win on each.
Talking Horses will be live each day of the Festival, for the competition as well as all the latest news, views and analysis from me and Greg at the track. Do join us!
Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Yonks ago, there seemed to be a tradition of Irish plots for the Stratford card on the day before the Cheltenham Festival and perhaps my memory is failing me but I seem to remember one of them romping home at 10-1, despite having been well backed. Anyway, it’s just like old times to see Tony Martin with a runner there today in Kinnitty Castle (3.15).
In the tradition of great plots, the form case for this one would be hard to make. For a start, he’s been pulled up in his last four starts, which is nearly every race he’s had in the past two years. There might be nothing actually plotty about this. Today’s contest really might be a final throw of the dice as Martin tells himself: “Geez, if he can’t show something in a race as bad as this, we’ll have to get rid of him.”
Still. Kinnitty Castle showed quite a bit of promise when second in a point in November 2014, behind Baby Bach, who has won three times over hurdles and reached a rating of 132, two stones above where Kinnitty Castle is now. The third horse was Ballyoptic, who will line up in the Stayers’ Hurdle on Thursday and now has a rating of 162.
Kinnitty Castle won a Gowran bumper the following spring. But he has shown the square root of nothing at all over hurdles, tending to start at the back, become detached in mid-race before finishing weakly. Once, he was noted to be coughing.
But one or two of those races contained some quite tasty rivals. Having not been seen for four months, he may have had one or two issues sorted out in the interim. Leighton Aspell is an eye-catching booking. On the other hand, Martin has been out of form all winter.
All things considered, I’m prepared to take a flier on Kinnitty Castle at 12-1 in the spirit of the Cheltenham build-up. But one has to countenance the very obvious possibility that he will never be sighted with a chance and I’ll be feeling daft by the second flight.
Spader (2.10) is also worth a look at 9-1 in the Stratford opener. A winning handicapper on the Flat in Ireland, he hadn’t been long with Dan Skelton when having two quick runs over hurdles in December, pulling so hard that he got himself beat.
We might see more of his ability after a short break and this soft ground should also help him. There was enough promise in his Taunton effort to make him of interest if he can be just a bit more professional this time and this left-handed track should also be more suitable. Skelton was about to lose his form when Spader last ran but is flying along again now.
In similar vein, Skelton’s Hatcher (4.50) could be value at 3-1 in the bumper, having tanked along under Bridget Andrews on his only start so far, at Lingfield in December. He tired into third that day. A hood is now fitted and Harry Skelton has the job of trying to contain him through the first mile.
I’m afraid the nap, Mustarrid, is a non-runner at Chelmsford tonight. I shall now set to work trying to find a nap for tomorrow that will actually turn up....
Monday’s tips, by Chris Cook
Chepstow
2.20 Point N Shoot 2.50 Bandon Bridge 3.25 Ckalco Des Loges 4.00 Shintori 4.30 The Caller 5.00 Thedrinkymeister 5.30 The Flame
Chelmsford
5.50 Casablanca 6.20 Mustarrid (nap) 6.50 Qaffaal 7.20 Final 7.50 Kassandra 8.20 Strictly Carter
Plumpton
2.00 Fountains Windfall 2.30 Goonjim 3.05 Edgar 3.40 Midnight Tune 4.10 Dites Rien 4.40 Big Georgie 5.10 Soulsaver
Stratford
2.10 Spader 2.40 Lucky Jim 3.15 Kinnitty Castle 3.50 Dr Robin 4.20 Olofi 4.50 Hatcher (nb)
