Today’s best bet, by Chris Cook
Tsk. Who would have thought the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe would be a draw race? But the finishing order of Sunday’s race suggests to me that the outcome was indeed draw-affected. Here’s the finishing order by stalls position:
2, 3, 1, 9, 4, 10, 6, 7, 8, 18, 11, 12, 14, 17, 13, 5, 15, 16.
In the whole history of 18-runner races, that might be the one in which they’ve come closest to finishing in draw order. Now, I freely admit that some caveats are necessary. Enable seems clearly to have been the best horse in the race and Ulysses, third, was also fully entitled to go close on his established quality. So perhaps the fact that those two happened to be drawn low has exaggerated the effect of the draw here. There were hardly any fancied runners in the outside stalls.
Still, I note these points:
i) the only runner from a single-figure stall to finish outside the first nine was the Japanese pacemaker, a 250-1 shot.
ii) the only runner from a double-figure draw to finish in the first nine was the fancied Dschingis Secret from, er, stall 10.
It seems to me that it was an advantage to race prominently in this Arc and those in the bottom half of the draw, closest to the inside rail, have been able to do that. Zarak (drawn 18) appears to have been stuffed, to judge only by his 10th-place finish, but he’s probably run as well as he possibly could from the widest stall, having been dropped into last place through the early stages by Christophe Soumillon. I was a Zarak backer, which I dare say informs all of these thoughts, but I knew my fate as soon as I saw him held up so far off the pace.
Anyway, all of this is of limited use because the Arc returns to Longchamp next year, so you and I may live the rest of our lives without betting on a big-field race over a mile and a half at Chantilly. But if you do find yourself in that situation, remember what happened in this Arc.
Tactically, there was one moment of danger for Enable fans, quite early in the race, just after the free-going Idaho crossed in front of her and headed to the inside rail to make the running. Order Of St George, Idaho’s stablemate at Aidan O’Brien’s yard, then loomed up on Enable’s outside and the Irish horses appeared to a friend of mine “like two bouncers removing her from a nightclub”.
But Frankie Dettori on Enable saw Order Of St George coming and reined back to let him past, settling just behind him. The Italian was then perfectly placed to beat both for pace off the home turn, with everything else unable to land a blow.
What was the O’Brien plan, do you think? It seemed to me that Idaho and Order Of St George went just a reasonable pace, possibly in order to make the most of the chance of their stablemate Winter, a doubtful stayer. That would be to the detriment of Order Of St George himself and another O’Brien runner, Capri, who struggled to get involved from his wide draw, lacking the pace to get anything like a good early position.
O’Brien seems to have given a lot of thought to tactics in other races, so there must have been a plan here, for all that it didn’t come off. It’s pleasing, at all events, that no serious attempt was made to box Enable in or otherwise get in her way. She deserves the recognition she’s getting and will hopefully be back next year.
Her trainer, John Gosden, will doubtless have his week made for him by the news that The Guardian has napped one of his runners at Nottingham. Alba Del Sole (2.20) made a fair debut at this track in May, running on into fourth, a length and a half behind Tulip Fever, who won three of her next five.
She’s by Dandy Man, giving her a fair chance of coping with this soft ground, and even on the limited information we have about her, she makes a lot more appeal than these rivals. She’s 2-1.
Ivy Leaguer (3.25) might be overpriced at 16-1 in the nursery later. He showed distinct improvement when a close third at Sandown last time and now has a handy draw in this big field, against the stands’ rail. Cheekpieces are fitted to help for the first time. His dam won a backend maiden on soft ground, for what it’s worth.
It’s a good time of year to catch Charlie Longsdon, so his Abbotswood (3.50) appeals at Bangor. This 5-1 shot is a point to point winner now making his fences debut in a handicap after winning over hurdles when last seen in April.
He’s a half-brother to a Philip Hobbs horse that won his first two starts in handicap chases last summer, albeit off a lower mark. I prefer Abbotswood to Cuirassier Dempire, raised 10lb for winning a modest affair at Worcester.
Tips for all Wednesday races
Nottingham
1.50 Little Boy Blue 2.20 Alba Del Sole (nap) 2.55 Sageness 3.25 Ivy Leaguer 4.00 Harmonise 4.30 Hedging 5.05 Quatrieme Ami 5.35 Father McKenzie
Salisbury
2.00 Carp Kid 2.30 Tullyallen 3.05 Algam 3.35 The Daley Express 4.10 Almoreb 4.40 Incredible Dream
Bangor
2.10 Big Penny 2.45 Ben Arthur 3.15 Bedrock 3.50 Abbotswood (nb) 4.20 Capitoul 4.55 Walden Prince
Kempton
5.40 Treacherous 6.10 L’Explora 6.40 Left Alone 7.10 Dragon Mountain 7.40 Don’t Give Up 8.10 Ply 8.40 Corredordel Viento 9.10 Mizen Master
