Today’s best bet, by Chris Cook
I see that the ground at Chantilly, which will stage the Arc on Sunday, is being reported as ‘soft’ this morning by the International Racing Bureau and that’s hardly a surprise for the time of year. But I’m interested that the forecast for that area is dry and quite warm, with no more than 2mm of rain even on those days when rain is expected.
If, by any chance, it were to dry out to ‘good’ going, I’d be interested in the 7-1 about Ulysses to turn around King George form with Enable. But, classy as he is, he’d really need it to dry out. He couldn’t get home like she did on rain-softened ground at Ascot and we all expect that form will stand up if there’s cut in the ground on Sunday.
Traditionally, this is the week when the words “heavy dew” get used a lot in racing circles, as a reason why the going may not dry out much in the Arc build-up. I’ll definitely be sitting on my hands until Sunday afternoon, as regards betting on the big race, because the state of the ground will make all the difference.
It has certainly made the difference at Hamilton, where racing has been abandoned today because of all the recent rain. Leicester’s card will go ahead on deep going. So thank the Lord for an all-weather surface, since Kempton stages what should be an exciting and informative card on its Polytrack.
Mudallel (5.05) is the nap, although the early 4-1 has become an ungenerous 5-2. Since being gelded and switched into handicaps, Ed Dunlop’s three-year-old has done well at this track, racking up form figures of 411. He passed most of the field in the last furlong and a half last time after a confident ride and has plenty more to offer.
Earlier, Asaas (2.55) might be over-priced at 15-2, from the Roger Varian yard that continues among the winners. He looked ready for a step up in trip when a bit disappointing at Beverley last month and that was only his first outing since he was gelded. I’ll give him another chance with Silvestre de Sousa back aboard.
Waves (5.15) might be pick of the card at Leicester at 9-2. The going there will not be to every taste but she has shown a distinct liking for the mud, winning on soft at Bath in May and being a plodding-on third on heavy at Ffos Las last time. The winner of that race, Fastnet Spin, has a fine chance in the previous race at Leicester.
Tips for all Monday races
Kempton
1.50 Deviate 2.25 Graffiti Master 2.55 Asaas 3.30 Shurooq 4.05 Power And Peace 4.35 Seeking Magic 5.05 Mudallel (nap) 5.35 Discovered
Leicester
2.00 Lady Dancealot 2.35 Kings Academy 3.05 Court House 3.40 Venturous 4.15 Soghan 4.45 Fastnet Spin 5.15 Waves (nb) 5.45 The Groove
Hamilton
ABANDONED
