Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Here’s a horse who’s done well over hurdles. Pick him up and have a look; he has a fine, barrel chest, four powerful legs and a big, long head like a canoe. Is he going to do as well over fences?
It’s a question that comes up all the time in jump racing and I’d say it amounts to one of the sport’s greatest mysteries. For all the little signs and portents in each case, the outcome can be very surprising. However much you may expect a particular horse will love steeplechasing, you can’t really know until they go out and do it.
Thistlecrack makes his chasing debut at Chepstow today, providing connections are happy with the state of the ground, which they expect to be after last night’s rain in the area. He grew into such an impressive hurdler last season, winning three Grade Ones by seven or eight lengths each time, that he has somehow become favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup without jumping so much as a single fence in public.
This is clearly madness. The Gold Cup is likely to be a strong race (Don Cossack, Coneygree, Cue Card, maybe Vautour or Douvan), whereas Thistlecrack excelled last winter in a weak division.
But for today we’re only really concerned with how he’ll cope in a low-profile, small-field contest around Chepstow. Even if he’s not so great at the fencing, he’ll probably be good enough to win. Just last week, we saw the classy hurdler Old Guard scramble home in a beginners chase at Exeter despite bashing through one fence and cat-leaping another.
On the other hand, are you going to take odds of 1-7 about Thistlecrack here? Bear in mind that other World Hurdle winners have been beaten at odds-on in novice chases; I’m thinking of Big Buck’s, Iris’s Gift, Princeful ... OK, Princeful was brought down but these things can happen.
Long odds-on is not for me in almost any circumstance but certainly not for a horse’s first time over fences. I hope they all come back safely, of course, but the bet has to be Saddlers Encore (3.35) at 8-1.
He’d be getting three stone from Thistlecrack over hurdles, though I feel his ability in that sphere was never fully expressed. But he is absolutely a chaser on looks and, being from the Philip Hobbs yard, will have been well prepared for this.
At the very least, he can keep Thistlecrack company as far as the home turn. And those seeking to buy money through the favourite must consider that Tom Scudamore will surely look after him if things aren’t going entirely to plan.
In Catterick’s mile and a half handicap, Eez Eh (4.00) looks a three-year-old to stick with. Keith Dalgleish’s colt has improved for the fitting of cheekpieces and made all to get his first win at Carlisle last time. He’s only 4lb higher and the extra distance ought to help. As a son of Jeremy, this soft ground should be right up his cup of tea. He’s 8-1.
Henry Oliver can get a big-priced winner once in a while and I’m more interested than the betting market in his Generous Day (4.45) in the Bangor bumper. The market makes him a 66-1 shot and that might be fair for most of Oliver’s bumper runners, since the trainer is 1/22 in that sphere.
But Generous Day is better bred for this kind of thing than most of Oliver’s types. He’s the first foal of an unraced dam (so far, so meh) but her dam was Forest Pride, who produced seven (SEVEN) bumper winners, including three who won the first bumper in which they took part.
The likelihood is that this will not actually be the day for Generous Day but I wouldn’t be laying him at bigger than 10-1.
In Newcastle’s last race, I’ll give another chance to the 6-1 shot Melgate Melody (8.30), a Mick Easterby three-year-old. I really fancied him for an amateur riders race at Redcar last time but he went off too fast and got tired.
He’s dropped in distance here and has Graham Gibbons aboard for the first time, which suggests to me a concerted attempt to get this one off the mark if it can be done.
We are no longer able to continue with competitions every week, but they will still run in the biggest weeks (Cheltenham, Aintree, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and maybe one or two others, as well as the Christmas quiz).
We’ll still have a Talking Horses each day for tips, analysis and news, so we very much hope you’ll join us to chew over whatever racing happens to be going on and post your tips or racing-related comments below.
