The extended heatwave is starting to have a clear impact on the field sizes for races on unusually fast turf ground, with the average number of runners per race in July now below eight – the “magic number” when it comes to maximising betting turnover.
There is a particularly thin bill of fare for racegoers on Wednesday at Bath, where just 31 horses have been declared for seven races, but as is the case when the climate is at the other extreme, Britain’s all-weather tracks are providing some relief. Chelmsford City’s valuable card later on has 9.4 per race, while at Newcastle this afternoon the figure is 12.6, which is a crumb of comfort at least for those who still rue the loss of Gosforth Park’s turf track.
Only the last of the eight races has a single-figure field and while M C Muldoon is odds-on for the novice event, the handicaps are highly competitive for the most part. First Breath (4.50) and Zig Zag (2.40) look like the strongest bets on the card, but the real quality on Tuesday is at Chelmsford in the evening.
Real Estate pulled 10 lengths clear of the third horse home when second to Dutch Monarch at Wolverhampton last time out, when he was attempting to follow up a win at the same track under a 6lb penalty. He was just half a length behind the winner and both horses recorded useful times, while Walk On Walter’s presence in today’s field should also mean that James Tate’s runner does not need to make his own running.
Ekhtiyaar (7.10) could also reward an interest on the same card, having resumed his progress at Newcastle last time after a below-par run at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket in early May. Several runners from his latest start have run well since, including Summerghand, eighth past the post, who took a Class Three race at Nottingham five days ago. Cenotaph, who won on his seasonal debut in June, is the obvious danger but he has yet to post a run that matches up to Ekhtiyaar’s best form.
On the turf at Musselburgh, Landing Night (3.25) could be worth a small interest at around 7-1 over a track and trip where he has run well in the past, while Different Journey (3.55) is also fairly priced at around 4-1.
Newcastle 1.40 Lawmaking 2.10 Louis Treize 2.40 Zig Zag 3.15 Hamlul 3.45 M C Muldoon 4.20 Supreme Power 4.50 First Breath 5.20 Kyllachy Dragon
Ffos Las 2.00 Operative 2.30 Elegant Love 3.05 Anchises 3.35 Advanced Virgo 4.10 Souriyan 4.40 Ellen Gates 5.10 Jashma
Musselburgh 2.20 Twilight 2.50 Dancing On A Dream 3.25 Landing Night 3.55 Different Journey 4.30 Jacob Black 5.00 Great Fighter
5.35 Pavers Pride
Nottingham 5.30 Optima Petamus 6.00 Mayson Mac 6.30 Lexington Place 7.00 Zip Along 7.30 Kalagia 8.00 Mischievous Rock 8.30 Dream Serenade
Chelmsford City 6.10 Master Poet 6.40 Moyassar 7.10 Ekhtiyaar (nb)
7.40 Tum Tum 8.10 Piece Of History 8.40 Real Estate (nap) 9.10 Sanam
