Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
The trainer with one stable star will wish for more but at least there is a simplicity to the decisions he faces about running plans. Henry Candy has two top-class sprinters just now and it seems to be causing him rather a headache in the run-up to tomorrow’s Sprint Cup at Haydock.
The plan was for Twilight Son to run and Limato to miss the race, at least partly in the expectation that soft ground would prevail as it usually does at Haydock in early autumn. Then, at yesterday’s final entry stage, those plans were reversed, with Limato declared and Twilight Son left out, largely because ‘good’ ground was expected.
But now forecasts say there will be a lump of rain dropping over Haydock in the hours before the race, perhaps amounting to 11mm. Candy, quoted in today’s Racing Post as saying that Limato won’t run if there is any mention of soft in the going description, now says the horse will take part so long as the rain is within the limits currently forecast, but we are not told how much is predicted in the forecast he uses.
I’d imagine 11mm would make Limato a non-runner but we shall have to hold our breath and wait to be told. I should say that Mr Candy has all my sympathy; late rain, which may never arrive, makes planning very difficult and I gather he is getting plenty of ‘input’ from his owners as well.
At least we can be fairly sure of a sound surface at Ascot, where Jameerah (2.35) looks a generous 14-1 in the sprint handicap. From the James Tate stable that has been flying along in the last two months, she was far too fresh on her reappearance but ran about a stone better when scoring at Wolverhampton next time. This will be her first run on turf since her debut but fast ground should be fine and I think there’s quite a bit more to come from her, especially if she can settle behind the likely strong pace.
The nap is Walpole (3.45), who was far from impressive when taking a straightforward opportunity at Thirsk last time. Still, I shall keep faith with this half-brother to Rizeena, who was having his first outing for more than two months and could be sharper this time. He still looks well handicapped and the 15-8 is fair.
Tipping competition, day four
Our winners so far:
Tuesday
Highland Acclaim 6-1
Paco’s Angel 8-1
Lincoln Rocks 9-2
Wednesday
Mia Tesoro 5-2
Depth Charge 12-1
Coeur Tantre 7-2
Thursday
Madam Dancealot 10-1
Cymro 9-1
West Coast Flyer 15-8
And our leader is:
goodfellow1 +14.38
... who moved ahead of wiggy12 (+11.50) with West Coast Flyer. No one found Madam Dancealot and only kmill68 (+5.50) had Cymro. Other good scores: wiggy12 +11.50, moidadem +9.50, Mai11 +8.50, ID3814422 +7, kmill68 +5.50, Copshaw +4, dean055 +3.50, Perry Tang +2.50, wemeanyounoharm +2.50.
For today’s thrilling climax, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 4.20 Ascot, 5.00 Haydock, 8.30 Kempton.
This week’s prize, somewhat prematurely, is a copy of RFO’s Jumps Guide for the 2016/17 season, which will be posted to you on publication in October. A tremendously useful prep-guide for all jump racing fans, the annual promises interviews, horses to follow, analysis of last season and tips for forthcoming winter highlights. If you don’t win you can buy a copy here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today but you will start on -9.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
