4.05pm Nicholls focusing on Unioniste and Creek in National
Paul Nicholls has given chapter and verse on his seven Grand National entries through his Betfair blog. All appear to be possible runners at this stage, though I get the impression that Rebel Rebellion may end up in the Topham. Some of his horses are dependent on circumstance. Benvolio would really want soft ground. Rolling Aces would want a dry surface.
The trainer’s interest appears to be mainly on Unioniste (“Ruby always said to me he’d be the next real Aintree candidate”) and Rocky Creek (reported “in really good order” and has been trained all season for this). But it was interesting that, when his interviewer failed to ask about Sam Winner here today, Nicholls made a point of mentioning him, saying: “He stays forever, he could be an interesting horse if he runs well in the Gold Cup.” Chris Cook
4pm O’Neill says National hope Shutthefrontdoor will run a big race
“[Shutthefrontdoor’s] a good jumper. He likes the good ground. I think he’s a better horse on a flat, galloping track. I’m not convinced he likes Cheltenham because he’s a big-striding horse and needs a bit of room and Cheltenham can be tight for horses like that.
“But he’s in great form and if I can get him there 100%, he’ll run a big race. You can’t argue with that [the weight of 11st 2lb]. We’d like to have him 10st 7lb or 10st 5lb would be even better but that’s the way it is.
“Burton Port runs tomorrow. He’s plenty of life in him at home, he works really well but he’s a bit of an old monkey and he’s just getting on a bit. Brilliant weight. I fancied him a lot last year and it didn’t happen. Whether he’d go back and like it this year, that’s another story. He ran a good race afterwards at Sandown.
“Merry King finished third in the Hennessy, he’s had a wind operation since then. If he’d had that [before the Hennessy], it might have been a different result. We’re very happy with him. He also likes good ground. He stays and jumps. We haven’t entered him for anything at Cheltenham, we’re just going to go straight to Aintree with him.” Chris Cook
3pm Balthazar King will head straight for the Grand National
Chris Cook: Sara Hobbs, wife of Trainer Philip, has said that Balthazar King will go straight to the Grand National and be kept fresh for that day on 11 April. This is no small decision, since he has been so good over the cross-country course at Cheltenham, yet will skip the Festival race next month.
Hobbs added that Gas Line Boy is unlikely to run in the National, having disappointed with his jumping last time out. I must admit, that took me by surprise, as the horse’s form makes him an interesting candidate and the National is not quite the jumping test of yore.
Chance Du Roy is an intended runner for the Hobbs yard, while Duke Of Lucca may also line up at Aintree, if all goes well in the Cheltenham cross-country race which is his next race.
2.45pm George believes National rise is answer to Saint’s prayers
Chris Cook: I thought Tom George, trainer of Saint Are, might be miffed that his horse has been raised as much as a stone for winning at Catterick last week, but his only reaction was delight that the horse is now assured of a place in the race. “It’s more important to get in than to be a couple of pounds lower,” he said.
The horse came to him last summer, having previously been trained by Tim Vaughan. “Obviously, he’s had problems over the last two years, I don’t know exactly what, but he’s fine now. I see him as a thorough stayer,” George said. The horse will not run again in the build-up.
2pm Teaforthree has Grand National as main ain for season
Chris Cook: Nigel Roddis, owner of Teaforthree is here. His horse, third in the 2013 National, ran at Haydock on Saturday with the aim of getting qualified for the Foxhunters at the Cheltenham Festival but ran only fourth when he needed to finish in the first two.
Teaforthree could still qualify for the Festival race if he runs by next Monday but Roddis told me they will attempt no such thing. He might run in a different race at the Festival but the big aim is now the National.
And, looking on the bright side, Roddis pointed out the unexpected bonus of having run at Haydock was that the handicapper has reacted by dropping the horse 5lb in the weights. Teaforthree has been given 10st 7lb, compared to the 11st 3lb he shouldered into third place two years ago. In handicapping terms, his rating has been dropped 7lb since that day, when he was beaten nine lengths, so he ought to have a fine chance if still capable of running to that level.
Now 11 years old, Teaforthree was sent off one of the 10-1 joint-favourites for last year’s National but unseated Nick Scholfield at The Chair fence at halfway.
1.40pm Mullins team will focus on Back in the Grand National
Chris Cook: The record-breaking amateur jockey Patrick Mullins is here to represent his father, Willie, who trains four National entrants. “He’d be the main one,” Mullins Jr told me, pointing to the name of Back In Focus, who has been allotted a reasonable 10st 13lb.
Mullins Jr had a big day aboard Back In Focus at the Cheltenham Festival two years ago, when the pair won the National Hunt Chase together. The horse has hardly been seen since, having had a tendon injury. Mullins Jr said the horse remains a fragile sort and it is too early, in his view, to be sure that the horse has retained the old ability but he saw encouraging signs in the horse’s comeback over hurdles at Navan on Sunday, when he clearly needed the run.
The Mullins camp also have Boston Bob and Ballycasey entered for Aintree. Both have their main targets at the Cheltenham Festival and a National run, if it comes, will be an afterthought.
“Prince De Beauchene will run if I can do the weight,” Mullins Jr told me, smiling. “But the weights will have to go up a fair bit.” The horse has been given 10st 6lb. Realistically, the young Mullins would need the weights to go up 10lb by 11 April if he is not to put up overweight.
1.30pm Clouds set for Gold Cup in preference to National
Chris Cook: I’m privileged to be sitting next to Oliver Sherwood at the lunch to mark the unveiling of the Grand National weights. Prompted by the media guide, he has been reminiscing about when he finished eighth in the race in 1983 aboard the dual Festival winner Venture To Cognac. “Good jumper, was he?” I asked. “Had to be, with me aboard,” Sherwood replied.
Sherwood’s interest this year is as trainer of Many Clouds, one pound off top weight with 11st 9lb. The handicapper has let the Hennessy winner in 5lb light as an inducement to take part but Sherwood feels Many Clouds is still unlikely to show up on 11 April at Aintree.
“The Gold Cup is the target,” the trainer told me. “I’ll have to discuss it with Trevor Hemmings, who owns him, and of course Trevor loves the National. But at the moment the horse is in as insurance, in case something goes wrong early on in the Gold Cup, like he unseats or gets carried out.”
Dr Richard Newland, who won last year’s National with Pineau De Re, appeared happy to see his horse on 11st, a very manageable weight, 8lb more than the horse shouldered last year. “But I wouldn’t want the weights to go up too much,” Newland said. “He’s not a big horse, he wouldn’t want to carry too much more than that.” Between us, we guessed that the weights are unlikely to rise more than 4lb, since, even if the current top weights withdraw, Unioniste on 11st 6lb is likely to run.
12.35pm Timeform top rate The Druids Nephew for National
Tony Paley: Respected tipping organisation Timeform have revealed that The Druids Nephew tops their weight-adjusted ratings for the Grand National.
On Tuesday, Timeform jumps handicapper Phil Turner said: “The Druids Nephew [on an adjusted rating of 180] remains a handicap chaser to be interested in - his Cheltenham form could scarcely be stronger and since then he’s done remarkably well to get involved in the Hennessy after an early mistake and he went through the Cleeve as though in good heart. He may or may not be a ‘National horse’ but he’s certainly a well-handicapped one.”
Others near the top of Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings are Gold Cup hopeful Many Clouds [177+], Classic Chase third Shotgun Paddy and Kim Muir winner Spring Heeled [both 176]. Current ante-post favourite Shutthefrontdoor, widely regarded as the horse likely to be Tony McCoy’s ride in his final Grand National, is on 175p.
Turner added: “Shotgun Paddy and Spring Heeled are definite National types and have come out favourably at the weights. Shotgun Paddy’s connections will surely be heartened by what appears to be more give in the Aintree fences these days, though Spring Heeled has seemingly been campaigned with solely the National in mind since the Kim Muir and he could yet have more to offer.”
“It’s also worth pointing out that Back In Focus [175+] would have been top ahead of The Druids Nephew on his very best form over fences. We’ve taken a cautious view for now, though, given he’s only very recently returned from a near two-year absence.”
Timeform weight-adjusted ratings for the Grand National:
180 The Druids Nephew
177+ Many Clouds
176 Shotgun Paddy, Spring Heeled
176? Double Ross
175p Shutthefrontdoor
175+ Back In Focus
175 Burton Port, Broadway Buffalo, Cause of Causes, Godsmejudge, Monbeg Dude, Theatrical Star
175? Ballycasey, Mountainous, Super Duty
174 Chance du Roy, Renard, Rocky Creek, Vintage Star
12.25pm Who will McCoy ride? The Handicapper speaks
Chris Cook: I asked Phil Smith what he thought of Shutthefrontdoor, on the basis that the horse is likely to be Tony McCoy’s last ride in a Grand National. “Why won’t he ride that?” Smith asked, pointing to Carlingford Lough.
“Fifteen years ago, he’d have had 12st. He’s now got 11st 10lb. He’s compressed by 5lb. How much more of an enticement does McCoy want to ride Carlingford Lough?”
Of Shutthefrontdoor, Smith said: “The bulk of his rating is on his Irish National win. You’d be pretty hopeful that he will stay four and a half miles, because he’s shown he can over three miles five furlongs. The downside for him is, the form of the Irish National is utter rubbish. It’s been shot through. Have a look at the Irish National result and look at what those horses have subsequently done. They’ve all run abysmally.
“What I really like about the [Aintree] race this year, there’s a lot of horses with potential, who are still going upwards. Whereas in the past, there’s been a lot of what you might call horses who’ve been there and done it but didn’t have a great deal of improvement in them. There’s a lot of horses in the field this year which I know will end up at some point in their career 8lb or 10lb higher and it could be from this race.
“I’ll pick out one for you, Al Co. Scottish National winner, you’d be reasonably confident he’d stay the trip, he won his last race, he could be anything.”
12.10pm The horses best in at the Grand National weights
Chris Cook: As is his habit, Britain’s senior handicapper, Phil Smith, has compressed the differences between those horses at the top of the Grand National weights in order to give them more of a chance, topweights having generally had a tough time in the National. The result is that the following horses have less weight than they strictly ought to have:
Carlingford Lough 5lb well in
Lord Windermere 5lb well in
Many Clouds 5lb well in
Sam Winner 3lb well in
Boston Bob 3lb well in
Unioniste 2lb well in
Everyone else is off their current rating, except:
Alvarado 1lb worse off
Chance Du Roy 1lb worse off ...
both having run well over the National fences before. Smith has raised them 1lb each to make it more likely that they will make the cut for the race at the bottom end of the weights.
The compression at the top of the weights is the most low key since Smith introduced it as a factor for the National. The average topweight over the last 10 years, at this stage, has been 8lb well in. The 5lb of this year is the smallest figure Smith has ever used, because, he told me, so many of the horses at the head of the weights are “on the way up” or unexposed to some extent.
“I couldn’t take the risk” of giving these horses less weight, relative to the rest, Smith said. “You’re trying to entice them to run but you’re not trying to gift them the race.”
12pm Shutthefrontdoor the favourite for 2015 Grand National
Tony Paley: Shutthefrontdoor, Tony McCoy’s likely mount in the 2015 Grand National, is favourite with William Hill for this year’s race at Aintree on Aprill 11. The horse was tipped here at 20-1 for Talking Horses readers last week by Chris Cook.
Here is the full William Hill betting: 10-1 Shutthefrontdoor
16-1 Balthazar King
20-1 Unioniste
25-1 Carlingford Lough, Godsmejudge, Merry King, Pineau De Re, Rocky Creek, Sam Winner, Spring Heeled
33-1 Back In Focus, Guess Again, Living Next Door, Lord Windermere, Many Clouds, Monbeg Dude, Prince De Beauchene, Royale Knight, Saint Are, Soll, Teaforthree
40-1 Across The Bay, Al Co, Alderwood, Boston Bob, Chance Du Roy, Dolatulo, Gallant Oscar, Green Flag, Hadrian’s Approach, Home Farm, Owega Star, Portrait King, Raz De Maree, Roi Du Mee, Shotgun Paddy, Wyck Hill
50-1 Alvarado, Any Currency, Baileys Concerto, Ballycasey, Benvolio, Broadway Buffalo, Buddy Bolero, Burton Port, Carlito Brigante, Cause Of Causes, Corrin Wood, Court By Surprise, Double Ross, Duke Of Lucca, First Lieutenant, Gas Line Boy, Goonyella, Harry The Viking, Katenko, Kruzhlinin, Make A Track, Mon Parrain, Mountainous, My Murphy, Night In Milan, Oscar Time, Poole Master, Rajdhani Express, Rebel Rebellion, Renard, Rigadin De Beauchene, Rolling Aces, Rubi Light, Standing Ovation, Sunnyhillboy, Super Duty, The Druids Nephew, The Package, The Rainbow Hunter, Theatrical Star
66-1 Bob Ford, Cedre Bleu, Ely Brown, Glenquest, Lackamon, Loch Ba, Sydney Paget, Tales Of Milan, Tranquil Sea, Vintage Star
100-1 Alpha Victor, American Spin, Ballyoliver, Ikorodu Road, Maggio, Mart Lane, Neptune Equester, River Choice, Rose Of The Moon
12pm Carlingford and Windermere top weights for 2015 Grand National
11st 10lb Carlingford Lough, Lord Windermere
11-9 Many Clouds
11-8 Sam Winner
11-7 Boston Bob
11-6 Unioniste
11-4 Rajdhani Express, Roi Du Mee
11-3 First Lieutenant, Rocky Creek, Rolling Aces
11-2 Balthazar King, Home Farm, Shutthefrontdoor
11-1 Alderwood, Double Ross
11-0 Hadrian’s Approach, Katenko, Pineau De Re
10-13 Back In Focus, Ballycasey
10-12 Rebel Rebellion, Spring Heeled
10-11 Dolatulo, Mon Parrain
10-10 Carlito Brigante, Living Next Door, Poole Master, Shotgun Paddy
10-9 Cause Of Causes, Night In Milan, Rubi Light, The Druids Nephew
10-8 Al Co, Benvolio, Godsmejudge, Sunnyhillboy
10-7 Corrin Wood, Make A Track, Monbeg Dude, Teaforthree, The Rainbow Hunter
10-6 Across The Bay, My Murphy, Prince De Beauchene, Saint Are
10-5 Burton Port, Merry King, Oscar Time, Tranquil Sea
10-4 Bob Ford, Cedre Bleu, Chance Du Roy, Gas Line Boy, Super Duty, Wyck Hill
10-3 Alvarado, Buddy Bolero, Court By Surprise, Owega Star, Portrait King, River Choice
10-2 Baileys Concerto, Duke Of Lucca, Ely Brown, Kruzhlinin, Renard, Royale Knight, Soll, Theatrical Star
10-1 Raz De Maree
10-0 Broadway Buffalo, Green Flag, Guess Again, Maggio, The Package
9-13 Gallant Oscar, Goonyella, Sydney Paget, Vintage Star
9-12 Alpha Victor, Mountainous
9-11 Ikorodu Road, Mart Lane
9-9 Any Currency, Harry The Viking, Rigadin De Beauchene
9-8 Ballyoliver, Glenquest
9-7 Lackamon, Standing Ovation
9-5 Loch Ba, Rose Of The Moon
9-3 American Spin
9-1 Tales Of Milan
9-0 Neptune Equester
11.20am Sire all set to run at Chepstow on Saturday
Tony Paley: Sire De Grugy is still on course for a Cheltenham Festival prep run at Chepstow on Saturday after pleasing trainer Gary Moore in a workout at his stables on Tuesday.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase will work again on Thursday, but at present Moore is keen to give Sire De Grugy an outing in the £25,000 Rifles Handicap Chase over an extended two miles after his 2014 Champion Chase winner unseated his rider on his comeback in the Betfair Price Rush Chase at Newbury earlier this month.
“He galloped this morning and everything went good,” said Moore. “He will school later in the week, probably on Thursday. We will run a few tests on him and if everything’s OK, I’ll speak to the owners, I’ll speak to [my son] Jamie [Moore] and we’ll take it from there. At the moment we’re definitely going.”
Tuesday’s best bets, by Tony Paley
The focus on Tuesday will be at the Royal Opera House where the weights for the Grand National are revealed. On the track the suggestion is to wait for tea, rather than a midday feast, and back Retro Valley (5.10) at the Wolverhampton all-weather fixture. The three-year-old has improved since being gelded and has shown enough on two starts this term to suggest he can get off the mark for the season.
Over jumps, Glendermot (4.15) takes the eye at the prices in the Class 5 Handicap Hurdle at Taunton. The step up in trip, the switch to handicap company and the fitting of headgear could bring about the necessary improvement in a race in which it is difficult to fancy many of the runners.
Cheltenham Festival stat of the day
by Paul Jones, author of the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide published by Weatherbys
Don’t be too wowed by horses with a string of 1s against their name earlier in the season with regards to the RSA Chase, as only Denman has won having been unbeaten over fences since 1998, so it is certainly no pre-requisite, mainly because this race is usually won by an improving horse whose early-season form is not always that special as they kick off over an inadequate trip and then only show their true worth when given a sterner test of stamina such as this. Willie Mullins is the master at this. We have to go back 13 years to Hussard Collonges to find the last winner to have started their career over fences over the RSA trip of around three miles. All three of Kings Palace’s chase starts have been over three miles or further.
The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide is published on February 20th and available via www.weatherbysshop.co.uk or 01933 304776
Tipping competition, day two
Our winners so far:
Monday
Gilzean 3-1
Gold Futures 6-1
Knock A Hand 4-1
And our leaders are. . .
Toptrapper +8
AndTim +8
. . . who had Gold Futures and Gilzean. Jtowen06 (+6) had Gilzean and Knock A Hand.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.10 Taunton, 3.55 Wetherby, 4.15 Taunton.
This week’s prize is a copy of The Racing Post’s Cheltenham Festival Guide 2015, which will be printed this week. It promises to be “packed with invaluable advice”, including a race-by-race guide, key trends analysed, details on the Irish challenge, jockeys and trainers to follow and the views of the Post team. It retails at £12.99 and, if you don’t win, you can buy it here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -3.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
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