Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Amid all the talk from trainers at the Grand National weights launch last night, the most significant line related to the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Gordon Elliott, who trains several excellent chasers for Michael O’Leary these days, said that, if he gets his way, Empire Of Dirt will run in the Gold Cup rather than the Ryanair at next month’s Cheltenham Festival.
I thought Empire Of Dirt ran a cracking Gold Cup trial when he was a running-on, arguably unlucky second in the Irish equivalent on Sunday. But Elliott’s immediate reaction, as reported in the next day’s Racing Post, was to point him at the Ryanair. That seems to accord with the wishes of the owner, whose brother Eddie told me on Monday that the Ryanair was definitely the plan.
Airline boss O’Leary has never won the Festival race which he sponsors and would dearly love to do so for the first time. Empire Of Dirt would give him a big chance, of course, but I’d say he belongs in the big race the next day and Elliott evidently sees it that way too. It’ll be interesting to see which view prevails; by reputation, we can expect O’Leary to listen to his trainer before taking the final decision himself.
The O’Leary / Elliott combination also has Don Poli for the Gold Cup and Outlander, who is entered in both races. Looking at Outlander’s history, I’d say there’s a fair chance he might be just as comfortable over the Ryanair’s shorter trip. The message for punters who like any of these horses is to make sure you get the ‘non-runner no bet’ concession if you’re backing them for any Festival race right now.
Outlander has been given top weight for the National but will not run, Elliott says. The Aintree race is definitely on Don Poli’s agenda and may also be on Empire Of Dirt’s, depending on what happens at Cheltenham.
Here’s a quick canter through some more trainer reaction to the National weights. Kim Bailey accepted 11st 5lb for The Last Samuri, who was second last year, but added: “He’s only a small horse, so it won’t be easy for him.” He’ll have a prep run in Doncaster’s Grimthorpe in a fortnight.
Blaklion, on 10st 10lb, is another smallish horse but “nimble” in the view of Nigel Twiston-Davies, who will run him in Haydock’s National Trial on Saturday. “We’ve always thought he is perfect for it. He stays forever and he jumps beautifully,” the trainer said.
David Pipe has stamina concerns for Vieux Lion Rouge, who may also run at Haydock. “I don’t think he quite stayed last year,” Pipe said. “He was only seven and is now eight. He has not always been the strongest finisher of his races, but he is a lot stronger this year and he really ground it out in the Becher, so we hope he can do the same in the National.”
Rebecca Curtis has two good chances. “If we can get O’Faolains Boy there in one piece he would have a right chance, but he is very fragile,” she said. “Last year he was perfect but literally the day before we had a bit of a disaster. He runs on Saturday at Ascot. I want to get two runs in beforehand. I’m not too worried about his prep runs, I just want to get him to the National. Shantou Flyer will probably run at Ascot on Saturday as well. We are sticking him in a Grade One over the wrong trip and he is crying out for three miles plus.”
Vicente is the interesting one for me at 33-1 and I made the case for him here. Let me know your views in the comments section below. Yes, it’s two months to the great race and a lot can happen before then. On the other hand: no guts, no glory!
For today’s jump racing, we’re still dealing with the kind of heavy going that has now become a trifle boring and will hopefully dry up in the next week or so. Still, it should be fine for William Money (2.50), who joined Tim Vaughan from Chris Grant last summer and showed something like his old form when second at Chepstow on his stable debut a month ago.
He got tired that day, as he was entitled to on his first start for eight months, but should be pretty straight this time. He’s two stones below his last winning mark, which was only from a couple of years ago. You can get 5-2.
Later, Clan Legend (4.20) is handily priced at 7-2 for what has become a four-horse affair after the withdrawal of Wolf Sword. The chestnut has often been ridden by Lucy Alexander and they’ve won races but I notice that his form with other jockeys has been U111 since he started jumping. In any event, Will Kennedy gets a chance today. He still looks fairly treated on his Hexham success from December.
At Kempton tonight, Tomorrow Mystery (7.20) looks big at 9-2 for a staying maiden, with Jamie Osborne’s horses running well. This one was beaten only by the useful-looking Keswick last time.
On Fire (7.50) is interesting at 7-4 in the following handicap. James Bethell’s four-year-old stayed on stoutly from too far back over this course and distance when making his handicap debut last time and should hopefully make a more timely challenge with that experience behind him.
Tips for Wednesday, by Chris Cook
Kempton
5.20 Moayadd 5.50 Bookmaker (nap) 6.20 Assertive Agent 6.50 Cherbourg 7.20 Tomorrow Mystery 7.50 On Fire 8.20 Spirit Of Gondree 8.50 Rocket Ronnie
Newcastle
2.20 Crackdeloust 2.50 William Money 3.20 Baby Ticker 3.50 Chakisto 4.20 Clan Legend (nb) 4.50 Judge Earle
Towcester
2.10 Bandon Roc 2.40 Act Now 3.10 Krackatoa King 3.40 Solighoster 4.10 Lunar Flow 4.40 Oliver’s Island
Wolverhampton
2.00 Celestial Dancer 2.30 Times In Anatefka 3.00 Fabulous Flyer 3.30 Mythical Madness 4.00 Malaysian Boleh 4.30 Byron Flyer 5.00 Alhajjaj
