Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
I was just a teensy bit gutted to see that Empire Of Dirt won the Troytown yesterday, given that he was my long-range fancy for the Grand National but as yet unbacked in that capacity. His Aintree odds will now be shorter, of course, but I almost feel they should be longer because of what yesterday’s success will do to his handicap mark.
Having won the Plate at the last Cheltenham Festival, he was easily going to be high enough in the handicap to be sure of a place in the National. I thought that Gordon Elliott, who inherited him in the summer from Colm Murphy, would probably not try anything ambitious until April, with the aim of getting him there on about the same rating.
But of course Elliott loves the Troytown, which he has now won three years in a row. The National will be the next plan but, having won at Navan, Empire Of Dirt can expect a mark in the mid-150s for Aintree.
That’ll give him 11st or thereabouts, the sort of weight with which you can’t win a National unless you’re Gold Cup class or very nearly. He might be that but I’d have preferred to be backing him on 10st 7lb.
Life goes on, to Plumpton, in fact, where Romain De Senam (1.25) is an exciting chase debutant in a four-runner race for Paul Nicholls. It’s more than a year since this ex-French type actually won anything (a juvenile hurdle at Wincanton) but there’s plenty of engine under his bonnet, as he showed when second in the Fred Winter at the Festival.
That race was won by his more fancied stablemate Diego Du Charmil, who was given a more attacking ride. The amount of ground Romain De Senam made up from two-out was simply enormous and he was beaten by a diminishing head.
I don’t hold it against him that he was stuffed by Apple’s Jade at Aintree in a soft-ground race at the end of term. Chasing was supposed to be his game and, at 11-4, I’m betting he’s going to be good at it today, especially in receipt of 12lb from the favourite, Top Notch. The latter loves the mud but the GoingStick reading suggests it’s drier at Plumpton than you’d expect for the time of year.
With that point in mind, I’ll give another chance to Neil Mulholland’s Very Extravagant (2.00) in the following handicap hurdle. Her winning run came to an end at Cheltenham a fortnight ago but heavy rain turned the going against her and she’ll be grateful for this step back down in class. She’s 6-4.
