Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Today’s novice chase at Fakenham may give us an idea as to whether Nicky Henderson’s early chase winner at Chepstow on Saturday was a one-off or a harbinger of better times ahead. As I discussed earlier in the week, Henderson’s chasers were a continual source of disappointment last season, which was the more puzzling because his hurdlers fared so well.
Hammersly Lake showed lots of promise as a handicap hurdler for Henderson last season without actually winning anything. He finished in front of Vibrato Valtat at levels when narrowly beaten at Cheltenham last October.
As chasing debuts go, today’s test looks inviting and he should win, though I don’t rate him a bet at odds-on. But victory would be significant inasmuch as it would give Henderson two steeplechase successes in a calendar month, something he didn’t achieve from July 2014 to March this year.
So it’s a race to watch for an idea of how things may pan out this winter. But defeat might say more about Hammersly Lake than his stable because clearly one has to be cautious about odds-on shots that haven’t won anything for four years.
For an actual betting interest, the small-field, low-quality jump races today don’t appeal as much as the large-field, low-quality Flat races. Haydock is especially interesting because everyone seems to expect ground on the soft side, whereas a GoingStick reading of 8.0 after eight dry days suggests it will probably be no worse than Good going.
Good is the ground I’d like for Harmonic Wave (1.30), a drifting 9-1 shot for the opening nursery. From the Ann Duffield yard whose juveniles have fared so well this year, she showed good speed to win on her handicap debut at Musselburgh last time and I think she will still be well treated on a 6lb higher mark here.
The favourite is Modest, penalised for a Catterick win on soft ground. A drying surface would be no help to her.
At Redcar, Dream Scenario (4.30) is interesting at 12-1, having returned to form by landing a similar contest at Newcastle last time. She’s just 3lb higher this time, which still leaves her 5lb below her previous winning mark. She ran well on her only previous try on soft.
Tipping competition, day five
Our winners so far:
Monday
Deeds Not Words 8-1
Wet Sail 6-1
Ghinia 5-1
Tuesday
Dinkum Diamond 9-1
Presence Felt 11-4
Pea Shooter 11-2
Wednesday
Village Vic 11-4
Lahayeb 7-2
Skinny Love 9-1
Thursday
Double Chocolate 8-1
Maggie Blue 11-1
Winning Hunter 25-1
And our leader is …
15244 +17.25
… who picked Maggie Blue yesterday to sail into a narrow lead. Other good scores: 16heathermac01 +17, TL127 +16.25, Mai11 +13.50, Harrytheactor +11.50, ken_taylor +11.25, donlewis +11.25, Knottlamag +9, diegoisgod +8.50, ps4999 +8.25, waltersobchak +8, Ken Woodward +8. No one had Winning Hunter but Knottlamag had both of yesterday’s other winners, catapulting himself out of obscurity and into the argument.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.35 Wincanton, 4.30 Redcar, 5.30 Haydock.
This week’s prize is a copy of the newly published Chasers & Hurdlers annual from Timeform, a hefty tome that is treasured by fans of the winter game and, at £75, is one of the most valuable prizes we ever offer on here. This year’s volume contains an appreciation of Tony McCoy’s career as well as reflections on SP over-round for the Grand National (“scandalous” says Timeform) and the length of time the BHA takes over corruption cases. If you don’t win this week, you can buy a copy here or read a sample here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -12.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
Good luck!
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